Gold Hits New Record High As 'Trump Trade' Takes Off; Crude & Mega-Caps Gain
'Soft' Survey data today (from Philly and Richmond Feds) were better than expected BUT - and it's a big but - inflation expectations are surging once again...
Source: Bloomberg
...and current and expected spending on software and equipment (cough AI cough) is plunging?
Source: Bloomberg
The surge in Prices Paid and Received dominated the downside in capex from the surveys and sent rate-cut expectations (hawkishly) lower again on the day...
Source: Bloomberg
So with all that said - and ignored - the market is now transfixed on the election... and the bets are one-way... on Trump...
Source: Bloomberg
Prediction markets are soaring in Trump's favor and even the polls are swinging higher now...
Source: Bloomberg
Overall the majors spent most of the day under-water but an afternoon drift higher lifted Nasdaq and The Dow into the green for the day but a very late-day selloff spoiled the party...
Mega-Cap tech saved the day (with a new record high for the basket) from being really ugly...
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were mixed to flat today with none of the curve ending more than 1bps different close to close (the long-end was slightly more bid)...
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar continued its charge higher - albeit only modestly today...
Source: Bloomberg
Another day, another record high for gold, trading within pennies of $2750...
Source: Bloomberg
Silver also continues to outperform gold...
Source: Bloomberg
Crypto went nowhere fast today, with Bitcoin chopping around $67,000...
Source: Bloomberg
Crude prices rallied on the day, with WTI back above $70...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as gold accelerates, global liquidity (proxied by global M2) has turned down...
Source: Bloomberg
...but bitcoin has only just started to catch up with the tsunami...
Source: Bloomberg
We agree with PTJ on this one - not seeing either as an election trade, but as an inflation trade..."I think all roads lead to inflation. I’m long gold. I’m long Bitcoin. I think commodities are so ridiculously under-owned, so I’m long commodities..."
