"Final Big Market Cap Event Of Year": All Eyes On Novo's CagriSema GLP-1 Results

The next big market cap event for Novo Nordisk is the top-line efficacy results for its experimental obesity drug, CagriSema, with data from a late-stage trial expected by the end of the year.

Novo previously stated that CagriSema could potentially lead to 25% weight loss, compared with Wegovy's 15% weight loss.

In early November, Martin Holst Lange, Novo Nordisk's head of development, told Reuters that data from its Phase 3 trial of CagriSema is expected to reflect higher weight loss: "There has been no change in our confidence level."

Goldman's Jack McFerran told clients Tuesday about the incoming data from Novo and told them to expect big moves in stock price.

McFerran cited Goldman's James Quigley, who is the "most bullish on the street, 27-28% weight loss."

More from McFerran:

James Quigley is the most bullish on the street, 27-28% weight loss. The key chart to understand his view is ex9: it shows the Phase 1, the red solid line with red dots, the important analysis is that this study was not optimised for (1) male / female (2) BMIs and (3) life style modifications. The impact was more men, lower BMI starting points. He expects P3 to have higher BMi starting, more women, more follow ups. This is important when contextualised with Ex9.
The bottom dotted line.. extrapolates Ph1 using the solid orange line ie for the rest of the trial same as placebo.. conservative and the line above is how do we get from Ph1 to mgts 25% guide.. i.e. this would have to be one of the worst Ph3s. Street are at 25% (with mgt) we are 27-28%.

The debate beyond the what digit this week debate, is will the consumer care about 25%, 26%, 28%, i.e. is this differentiated enough vs what is already in the mkt, to be super product.

McFerran cited weight-loss outlooks and expected stock moves from Goldman's Seth James:

Weight Loss: 23% and below – disaster, stock down 10-15%.
Weight Loss: 24%down 5-10% but will get bought.
Weight Loss: 25% - relief – stock up 5-10%
Weight Loss: 26% - Up 10%
Weight Loss: 27% - Up 15%
Weight Loss: 28% - Up 20%

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