December Jobs Preview: A Hot Print Is The Worst Case Scenario

With stocks sliding for the 3rd day in a row to their worst start to the year since 2005, and the Nasdaq down 5 days in a row, its longest losing streak since Dec 2022, traders were understandably jumpy ahead of tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls which, with today's ADP coming in stronger than expected while initial claims slumped, could come in well above consensus and really hammer the recent market euphoria driven by expectations that the Fed will cut rates as soon as May.

Speaking of expectations, what are they? Here is a snapshot, courtesy of Newsquawk:

• Headline NFP print of +175k, down from +199k, although analyst expectations are wide, varying between 80k and 235k.
  • Private payrolls are expected to rise by 130k from 150k, with manufacturing payrolls seen rising by 5k, easing from the prior 28k. Government payrolls previously added 49k jobs.