CPI Preview: The "Tiebreaker" Between A 25bps And 50bps Rate Cut

With the Fed's attention now falling squarely on the jobs part of the central bank's mandate, Wednesday's CPI print is of secondary importance especially since the Fed's mind is now clearly made up about at least a 25bps rate cut, yet any notable outlier print for the July CPI, and especially core, will surely raise eyebrows as ultimately lower/steady inflation will allow the Fed get back into neutral more quickly over time.

Here's what consensus expects:

• The median estimate is for US consumer prices to rise +0.2% M/M in August, unchanged from +0.2% in July, and the core rate is expected to also rise +0.2% M/M (also unch vs +0.2%).
  • The distribution is perfectly symmetric, with 5 analysts expecting core CPI at 0.3% and 4 expecting 0.1%