PremiumCPI Preview: The "Tiebreaker" Between A 25bps And 50bps Rate Cut
This article is so good
it's for premium members only.
Does that sound like you?
Already a member? Sign in.
PREMIUM
ONLY $30/MONTH
BILLED ANNUALLY OR $35 MONTHLY
All BASIC features, plus:
- Premium Articles: Dive into subscriber-only content, market analysis, and insights that keep you ahead of the game.
- Access to our Private X Account, The Market Ear analysis, and Newsquawk
- Ad-Free Experience: Enjoy an uninterrupted browsing experience.
PROFESSIONAL
ONLY $125/MONTH
BILLED ANNUALLY OR $150 MONTHLY
All PREMIUM features, plus:
- Research Catalog: Access to our constantly updated research database, via a private Dropbox account (including hedge fund letters, research reports and analyses from all the top Wall Street banks)
With the Fed's attention now falling squarely on the jobs part of the central bank's mandate, Wednesday's CPI print is of secondary importance especially since the Fed's mind is now clearly made up about at least a 25bps rate cut, yet any notable outlier print for the July CPI, and especially core, will surely raise eyebrows as ultimately lower/steady inflation will allow the Fed get back into neutral more quickly over time.
Here's what consensus expects:
- The median estimate is for US consumer prices to rise +0.2% M/M in August, unchanged from +0.2% in July, and the core rate is expected to also rise +0.2% M/M (also unch vs +0.2%).
- The distribution is perfectly symmetric, with 5 analysts expecting core CPI at 0.3% and 4 expecting 0.1%