CPI Preview: "There's A Genuine Risk" Inflation Will Come In Hotter Than Expected

While it's not expected to be a major market mover (certainly not comparable to the shock CPI prints of 2022 and early 2023), tomorrow's inflation print could lead to quite a few stop outs if it comes in hotter (or much cooler) than expected.

• Headline CPI is expected to slow in January, rising 0.2% vs the 0.3% increase in December (which however was revised to 0.2% after last week's seasonal adjustment revisions), while core CPI is seen rising 0.3% M/M (whisper is > 0.3%, which the market would frown upon), matching the 0.3% December increase. There is little dispersion between the estimates, with the highest core CPI forecast at 0.4% and the lowest at 0.1%,