PremiumCPI Preview... But Does Anyone Care?
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Tomorrow is CPI day... but does anyone really care? After today's almost 10% surge in the S&P500, option straddles are pricing in a "paltry" 2.3% move through tomorrow's post-CPI close.
With China just reported yet another CPI and PPI miss (CPI -0.1% YoY, Exp. 0.0%, PPPI -2.5% YoY, Exp. -2.3%), here is what consensus expects from tomorrow's CPI report:
- March headline CPI 0.1% MoM, down from 0.2% in February, but March Core CPI 0.3% MoM, up from 0.2% in February
- The range of estimates is wide (from 0.5% to 0.2%), with Landesbank Baden Wuertemburg on top with 0.5%, and UBS at the bottom with 0.2%.