Chinese EV Makers Will End An Already Stellar Year With A Continued Sales Surge, Analysts Predict

Despite a massive price war and European nations doing their best to create a trade war, the Chinese EV market still looks like it will easily be crowned the best electric auto market in the world heading into the final months of 2024.

China's major EV makers ended Q3 stronger than last year, with solid deliveries reducing the need for discounts, according to a new report from Bloomberg. 

Now, analysts predict a sales surge in Q4. EV and hybrid sales are booming, driven by expanded subsidies, boosting stock prices and Tesla's best Chinese quarter. In September, EVs and hybrids made up about 53% of new car sales.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Joanna Chen commented: “Industry demand has been better than expected since the third quarter following China’s beefed-up subsidies but many automakers still need a major push in the fourth quarter to hit their annual sales targets.”

She continued: “The first nine months usually contribute 70% of annual car sales and automakers below that threshold are under greater pressure to step up discounts in the quarter.”

Bloomberg writes that EV and hybrid sales are soaring, boosted by expanded subsidies encouraging trade-ins of older cars. This policy led to Tesla’s best Chinese quarter, with EVs and hybrids comprising 53% of new car sales in September.

Chinese EV sales are expected to rise further following a recent directive for government agencies to increase purchases of new energy vehicles. For example, Zhejiang Leapmotor, Nio, and Zeekr are thriving through major deals and brand expansions. Top-sellers BYD and Geely are on course to hit ambitious sales targets of 4 million and 2 million, respectively. BYD's earlier pricing strategies triggered months of market-wide discounting, the article notes. 

Yale Zhang, managing director at Shanghai-based consultancy AutoForesight, added: “I do not see a need to launch another price war. Most of them are in pretty good shape. The majority of these NEV or carmakers will reach their volumes.”

The fourth quarter is set for a surge in auto spending, driven by new EV launches and a year-end rush to use trade-in subsidies, according to Yuqian Ding of HSBC Qianhai Securities. Ding’s data shows EVs need fewer discounts, while gas cars maintain peak discounts of about 22%, the highest in three years. 

European brands like Volkswagen, Mercedes, and BMW, which had a tough Q3 in China, may resort to deeper price cuts. AutoForesight warns of a potential premium segment price war, with traditional luxury car production down 4% year-over-year, possibly ending 15 years of growth.