China's "Golden September" Stalls: Car Sales Crash 28% As Exports Become Lifeline

New data released by the China Passenger Car Association earlier on Monday show that China's peak car-buying season hit the brakes, with September passenger-vehicle retail sales plunging 28% from a year earlier as manufacturers increasingly relied on overseas buyers to cushion soft domestic demand.

The CPCA said in the report that retail sales fell to 1.62 million vehicles, marking a 12th consecutive monthly decline from a year earlier. Sales rose 5% from August.

The report showed that electric cars and plug-in hybrids accounted for a whopping 67% of passenger-car sales last month. Even so, retail sales of these new-energy vehicles tumbled 17% from a year earlier to 1.08 million units, underscoring the breadth of the domestic market slowdown.

"Overall sales volume was under significant year-on-year pressure, with limited month-on-month recovery; structural differentiation was amplified to the extreme, with accelerated contraction of fuel vehicles and resilient leadership of new energy vehicles becoming the main market theme, and high oil prices continuing to accelerate the pace of 'oil-electric substitution,'" the report stated.

Exports provided relief to domestic manufacturers as these cheap cars flooded international markets.

Overseas passenger-vehicle shipments, including knock-down kits, surged 73.7% to 917,000 units, accounting for 36% of manufacturers' sales, up from 19% a year earlier. The CPCA noted that exports now represent more than half of sales at some auto manufacturers, with a growing number approaching 70%.

But the sustainability of export demand came into question early Monday amid expectations that Europe would cap Chinese hybrid vehicle imports at 350,000 per year. These vehicles remain banned in the US market.

The CPCA also noted, "The surge in memory and chip prices driven by AI and tight supply have resulted in a slower increase in new energy vehicle sales recently."

"Industry inventory remained low, with high oil prices significantly impacting fuel vehicles, dealers being more cautious in purchasing new cars, and most dealers believing that the 'Golden September and Silver October' peak season effect was significantly weaker than in previous years, resulting in significant survival pressure and a lack of confidence among dealers. However, the current downturn in the car market is a temporary phenomenon resulting from the combination of short-term policy disruptions and a high base, rather than a sign that the fundamentals of car ownership have peaked," the report stated.