Late-Day FOMO-ing Lipstick Rescued Market Pig Ahead Of Jensen's Big Night
No notable macro today, but we did note that mortgage applications crashed after rates pushed back above 7%...
Source: Bloomberg
But the FOMC Minutes and NVDA were all she wrote and the former was more hawkish than expectations and the latter spooked a few traders after recent networking/chip earnings (CSCO, PANW, AMD). Yes, that is Plao Alto -30% (and NVDA saw some 'profit-taking')...
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks were sold as Europe opened and then Small Caps and Nasdaq were sold through the US open. The 'hawkish' FOMC Minutes spoiled the party and sent all the US majors lower but with 30 minutes to go, a wave of FOMO buying panic hit the market...
Source: Bloomberg
...which squeezed shorts...
Source: Bloomberg
...and 0-DTE malarkey helped...
...AND that lifted The Dow and S&P all the way to green on the day and pasted lipstick on an otherwise pig of a day for Small Caps and Big-Tech...
As VIX was curb-stomped late on, just like it was at the cash open...
Source: Bloomberg
Weakness from an ugly tail at the 20Y auction was exaggerated after the Minutes showed a Fed much more fearful of cutting rates too soon than being low too long, and that sent rate-cut expectations for 2024 even lower (back to 50-50 chance of 3 or 4 cuts, CPI lows)...
Source: Bloomberg
...and yields up uniformly around 4bps across the whole curve. That pulled all yields higher on the shortened week...
Source: Bloomberg
10Y Yields are at their highest since Thanksgiving. Are stocks starting to catch down to bonds' reality?
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar chopped sideways but ended lower on the day...
Source: Bloomberg
Gold mirrored the dollar and closed unch...
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin fell back to $51,000 today (yesterday's lows) amid quite a swing-y week...
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices ended higher on the day with WTI testing back up to $78 ahead of tonight's API data...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, Nvidia or not, US tech stocks are expensive... Fwd P/Es are at their highest since 2002...
Source: Bloomberg
Good luck tonight.