Bonds, Bullion, Bitcoin, & Big-Tech (Ex-NVDA) Bid Despite Macro Meltdown
Macro was ugly - really ugly - today: Personal Consumption ugly (Q1 downgraded on 3rd look), continuing jobless claims ugly (highest since Nov 2021), core capital goods new orders and shipments ugly (not a great signals for Q2 GDP), pending home sales ugly (puke to record lows SAAR), and finally, Kansas City Fed manufacturing ugly (21st month in a row without expansion)...
This smashed the US Macro Surprise Index to its weakest since January 2016 (and we have May's PCE tomorrow)...
Source: Bloomberg
Micro was not pretty: Micron spooked the AI trade (NVDA lower too)...
...Consumer weakness exhibited by Walgreens (lowest since 1997)
...and Levi Strauss (biggest daily drop ever)...
But Small Caps outperformed strongly on the day, as Nasdaq managed small gains and The Dow and S&P lagged, all just holding green into the close...
Once again the range in the S&P 500 was very low and realized vol over the last 10 days has dropped to multi-year lows (thanks long gamma and 0-DTE)
Source: Bloomberg
MAG7 stocks managed gains despite NVDA's loss...
Source: Bloomberg
Bank stocks were mixed after the stress tests (GS down on ccard losses, JPM up on strong capital, which ironically they came out and said was too generous)...
Source: Bloomberg
Bonds were bid across the curve with the belly modestly outperforming (down 3-4bps). Today's rally pushed 2Y yields lower on the week...
Source: Bloomberg
The macro was ugly enough to send rate-cut expectations (dovishly) higher on the day...
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar was flat to slightly lower after yesterday's yen-driven melt-up...
Source: Bloomberg
Dollar weakness prompted a rally in gold, finding support at $2300...
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin managed to bounce back above $62,000...
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices rebounded once again, with WTI breaking out above $82, its highest since April...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, of course, today was to some extent about positioning for tonight's debate. Goldman Sachs shows us this chart shows how institutional investors view November's outcome...
Source: Goldman Sachs
Simply put, Unified government is a major risk for bonds - Equities most sensitive to a Trump win.