Are We Destroying The Economy On Purpose?

In one of the most fascinating discussions I’ve had in a while, I spoke last weekend with my friend Andy Schectman about the state of the world, markets, geopolitics and the economy.

What started as a friendly catch-up quickly turned into delving into angles on the state of our nation that I had never before considered — specifically, Andy laying out one theory that started in the 1960’s that could explain the chaos that it appears our economy — and nation — is devolving into.

First, we talked about the bond market, excessive fiscal spending and why gold continues to be the answer. Andy told me: "I think it's a lot deeper than that, too. I think that we have proven to the rest of the world, largely through weaponizing of the dollar, that if you don't align ideologically with us, well, that's even a bigger problem. So, yeah, when you look at what gold has done over the past 25 years, it's outpaced the bond market, but it doesn't have the counterparty risk.”

“And I think that's really the big problem here,” he continued, explaining why he thinks the bond market will eventually lose its footing. “It's counterparty risk on top of brain-dead monetary policy and as irresponsible a fiscal policy as you could ever imagine. So, yes, I do think it is. And I don't know if 5% is the line in the sand. I mean, it just seems as though, according to Jim Willey, we can hand money to Ireland and the Caymans and the United Kingdom under the table to continue to, you know, continue the facade, if you will. as to who would be stupid enough to buy any treasuries of maturity, any U.S. bonds of length of maturity, 10-year or greater, who in their right mind would do that?"

Speaking about the Fed potentially cutting rates, Andy said: “Look, I think by cutting, we've lost all credibility at that point, complete and total credibility. And I don't think there is any way that they can lower rates. I really don't think that there is.”

“And I think there's nothing but inflation and higher rates ahead of us. But if I had to guess, it will be range bound, you know, just like there was no inflation and then it was transitory and then it was structural, then it was gone, then it was back. It'll be the same thing here,” he added.

As an example: “Well, the economy is a, you know, the economy is a little bit hotter than it was supposed to be. And also we're not going to be higher for longer. And, you know, but we're thinking of lowering and maybe we'll do two rate cuts by the end of the day. Okay. Maybe one, well, maybe we're not going to do it. They're not going to do shit. And I don't think they really can do much of anything.”

Andy says: “You know, they can't really raise rates because we have to sell $14 trillion in bonds this year to retire the maturing debt and also pay the current bills. And a lot of this debt's going to cost far more than the debt it's replacing, which could lead to even more printing to cover that cost. So you can't really raise rates.”

Andy then told me about the “Cloward–Piven theory”, which I had never heard of before.

The Cloward–Piven strategy is a political strategy outlined in 1966 by American sociologists and political activists Richard Cloward and Frances Fox Piven. The strategy aims to utilize "militant anti poverty groups" to facilitate a "political crisis" by overloading the welfare system via an increase in welfare claims, forcing the creation of a system of guaranteed minimum income and "redistributing income through the federal government"

The authors pinned their hopes on creating disruption within the Democratic Party, Wikipedia notes:

"Conservative Republicans are always ready to declaim the evils of public welfare, and they would probably be the first to raise a hue and cry. But deeper and politically more telling conflicts would take place within the Democratic coalition...Whites – both working class ethnic groups and many in the middle class – would be aroused against the ghetto poor, while liberal groups, which until recently have been comforted by the notion that the poor are few... would probably support the movement. Group conflict, spelling political crisis for the local party apparatus, would thus become acute as welfare rolls mounted and the strains on local budgets became more severe.”

Andy laid out how the theory makes all too much sense: “So what is the Fed going to do? Maybe they're doing what they want to do, and that is to incentivize the reset and not at the hands of Powell or not at the hands of Janet Yellen, even though it really is, but a villain to blame it on. And I mean, I don't know how else you can explain the stupidity. I mean, you would be a far better president and a far better, you know, head of the Federal Reserve or Treasury Secretary, and I mean that sincerely, I think anyone who listens to this would agree, just because you ooze common sense. Where is the common sense in any of the policy decisions of this government and of this Federal Reserve? Or is it too stupid to be stupid? And I'll leave that up to you.”

Talking about the Treasury buying back bonds, and how that turns into pure debt monetiazation, Andy added: "They say, 'And this is gonna happen in the next few days,' but who will be the entity that will do the buying? Because the treasury is broke. It ain't gonna be the treasury. So who is it? It's the New York Fed. And they're gonna have to conjure up cash to buy those bonds. And while a good portion of the world is shunning our bonds, and for good reason, keeping in mind that we do need to sell almost 14 trillion this year to retire 9 trillion and maturing at higher rates, plus the current bills. You know, who's going to do it? And this is debt monetization. This is the beginning to Weimar Republic. The Treasury says they're going to do it, but they're broke. So it'll be the Fed that will come up with the cash to do it."

Finally, we talked about the unrealized gains tax that I wrote about just days ago: Taxing Unrealized Gains Would Obliterate The U.S. Economy

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"You know, they're looking to raise 4.3 trillion over 10 years by imposing the unrealized gain tax. And I thought your comment was brilliant when you said we could save a trillion just by not sending 100 billion a year to other nations for starters, right?”

“If you spend a hundred dollars every second of every day, it would take you almost 2,000 years to equal the 6.2 trillion the U.S. government has spent in just the last 12 months,” Andy said.

“And the point that you bring up about, you know, what would happen, well, the first thing what happens that everyone would sell. And they would sell before the thing got enacted and it would cripple. Think what Nvidia and think of what Bitcoin, all of those unrealized gains, think of the collapsing. And then your point, which I didn't think about until I read your article, was spot on. These are the people who have enough money. Like I said, 'fuck it' to Minnesota. And I left my corporate office there. I left all my friends there. I left, you know, half my family there. And I said, 'I'm out' when they lost their mind. when they defunded the police, led the nation's charge in defunding the police and let the third precinct, of which one of my best friends from childhood was the sergeant there, watched that third precinct burn down on TV. And then the governor had the audacity to raise income taxes to over 10% in Minnesota, for God's sakes, where you freeze your ass off."

Talking about the bifurcation of the global economy and China, Andy said: "Little by little, they continue to distance themselves from the system, slowly selling treasuries, slowly accumulating commodities, striking deals all around the world. You know, I focus a lot on precious metals.”

He adds: “Obviously, the Chinese are the biggest buyers of it and producers of it, but it's not just precious metals. You know, with the Belt Road Initiative and the BRICS, they're making relationships with all of these countries for everything from rare earths to soft commodities like corn and wheat and soybeans. They're buying all of that, not from the US and Australia anymore. In fact, they just canceled big contracts with them in favor of buying them from Brazil, paying for it in Yuan, which is immediately convertible into gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. I don't know how many people know this, but the Chinese bought the LME, the London Metals Exchange a few years ago. That's not the LBMA where the precious metals are traded, but those are all the base metals that you would need to build an economy. And now they are warehousing these metals in China that are traded in London. See, they're setting the stage and they are buying everything that you need to bust away from a country that's lost its bearings.”

Andy is the President & Owner of Miles Franklin Precious Metal Investments. Prior to starting Miles Franklin, Ltd. in 1989, Andrew became a Licensed Financial Planner, specializing in Swiss Franc Investments and alternative investments. At Miles Franklin Ltd., a company that has eclipsed $5 billion in sales, Andrew has developed an operation that maintains trust, collaboration, and ethical behavior, superior customer service and satisfaction to better serve their clients. He is responsible for overseeing the firm’s operations and business functions; including strategy and planning, account management, finance, and new business. He is andy@milesfranklin.com on email.

You can listen to the full interview audio, spanning more than an hour and including much more, here.

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