Albert Edwards Warns Of A "Seismic Shock That Could Shake Investors To The Core" In 2024

Earlier today we said that if there is one thing that is dead certain not to happen on Wall Street, it is the prevailing consensus view (this was in the context of the 6-sigma conviction that Treasury yields will tumble in 2024). For a vivid example of this, look no further than this chart from January, in which the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia survey of professional forecasters showed that never before were more experts convinced a recession was imminent.

Well, with 2023 about to close, the NBER has so far failed to call it a recession (even if for tens of millions of ordinary Americans it sure feels like one), which as Albert Edwards writes in his final Global Strategy Weekly note of 2023, means that the "widely predicted US recession" failing to materialize was one of the year's two main macro surprises, while China's aborted restart and failed economic recovery in the wake of the easing of draconian Covid restrictions, was the second one.