4 History Lessons On How The Market Will React To The Election

While the US election next week will be pivotal for markets – even though we continue to see remarkable complacency surrounding the potential impact on risk assets, and as Goldman recently noted the implied move for election stands at 2%, the lowest reading since we began tracking the excess variance...

... the severity of next week's outcome will soon become apparent, not least given the potential implications for trade and fiscal policy. And while we will have countless more articles discussing the potential outcomes and various impact, it’s also worth thinking through some previous elections as to how the market reaction could play out. As DB's Henry Allen writes in a recent thematic research piece (available to pro subscribers), four lessons come to mind: