Gold, Bitcoin, & The Dollar Surge Ahead Of Retail Sales; Markets "Very Convinced" Of Trump Victory
VIX remains 'sticky' above 20... even as stocks manage gains...
Source: Bloomberg
VIX's option expiration this morning saw it spike up to 20.97 - the highest settlement since Nov22...
Source: Bloomberg
The short-term vol market is anticipating some movement tomorrow around the retail sales print (likely to be a blow-out number according to BofA), then some calm before the storm of the election outcome and the FOMC meeting...
Source: Bloomberg
And while on the topic of the election, during the past 12 days, the market has seemed "very convinced Trump is going to win,” Druckenmiller said Wednesday in a Bloomberg Television interview.
“You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto.”
Source: Bloomberg
The former Soros money manager predicted that it’s “extremely unlikely” that Democrats will gain control of Congress even if Harris were to win the presidency.
If there were a so-called blue sweep, he said, equities may be troubled for three to six months.
He also said that a red sweep is “probably more likely than a Trump presidency with a blue Congress.”
Since the Trump-Harris debate, stocks confirm Druck's views, shifting sharply in favor of a Trump victory (to a new high today)...
Source: Bloomberg
On the day, Small Caps outperformed once again (amid another big shot squeeze and strength in financials). Nasdaq ended the day unchanged (ASML worries continues to weigh)...
Another day, another short squeeze...
Source: Bloomberg
Nasdaq underperperformed Russell 2000 once again, pulling that ratio down to the lower end of its channel from the last year...
Source: Bloomberg
Morgan Stanley surged higher today on earnings, catching up to Wells Fargo. Citi remains the biggest loser...
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were lower across the curve today, but only modestly (1-2bps). The long-end continues to outperform on the week (notably curve flattening)...
Source: Bloomberg
The 10Y yield slid to 4.00% and found support there today...
Source: Bloomberg
2025 rate-cut expectations are rising once again (now back to pre-payrolls levels) while 2024 expectations remain more hawkish...
Source: Bloomberg
Credit spreads remain ridiculously tight - both relative to equity risk as well as relative to historical cycles...
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar pushed higher once again - reaching its highest since August 2nd's payrolls puke...
Source: Bloomberg
And despite the dollar strength, gold rallied up to a new closing record high...
Source: Bloomberg
That's quite a 'decoupling' between gold and the greenback...
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin continues to rip (Trump victory?), topping $68,000 today for the first time since July...
Source: Bloomberg
Crude prices trod water today, with WTI holding just above $70.00 ahead of tonight's API inventory data...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, USA sovereign risk has surged to its highest in a year...
Source: Bloomberg
What is the market worrying about?
