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Bonds Bid, Bitcoin Skids As Traders Take Profits On 'Trump' Bets

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Authored...

The equity market was mixed today with The Dow lagging and Small Caps leading (S&P/Nasdaq modestly lower) ahead of tomorrow's big day. NOTE the drop in the morning was reportedly triggered by WSJ HLs that Russia is suspected of a plot to send incendiary devices on US-bound planes, citing Western security officials, but that was quickly BTFD back...

The bigger theme of the day was profit-taking on the so-called "Trump Trade" after extreme outpereformance of the Kamala basket in recent weeks...

Source: Bloomberg

VIX ended the day notably elevated with the vol term structure extremely inverted ahead of this week's extreme event risks...

Source: Bloomberg

...in fact this is the VIX's longest stretch above its 200dma since 2019...

Source: Bloomberg

For the first time since early 2019, VIX Specs are net long futures...

Source: Bloomberg

Maybe this is more than an election-uncertainty trade... maybe it's structural...

Source: Bloomberg

Mega-Cap Tech fell once again today but has found support for now...

Source: Bloomberg

After Friday's utter chaos in bond land, reality set in that piss poor payrolls means lower yields and Treasury yields tumbled across the board with the long-end outperforming (2Y -3bps, 30Y -8bps). Yields are still marginally higher from Thursday's close...

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y yield ended back at pre-payrolls levels...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar continued to drift lower (ignoring the manic buying after payrolls)...

Source: Bloomberg

Arguably another "Trump Trade" continues to build as the Mexican Peso plunges to its weakest since Sept 2022

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the dollar weakness, gold trod water today, holding just above support around $2730...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin fell again after tagging record highs last week. BTC is finding support in the $67-68k region for now

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices rallied (with WTI back up near $72), erasing last week's plunge on Israel-Iran optics...

Source: Bloomberg

With oil prices rising again, we wouldn't question you for being surprised that pump-prices are testing multi-year lows (right ahead of the election)... probably nothing, right?

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, what happens to USA Sovereign Risk tomorrow?

Source: Bloomberg

From 12-month highs - will a divided govt soothe the pain?

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