Zelensky Pressured By Western Diplomats To Find 'Plan B' Ceasefire Track Amid Losses
Headlines in major US outlets last week and this week point to some behind the scenes scrambling and a degree of panic among Ukraine's Western backers. There is beginning to be acceptance that Kiev forces are losing the war, and that Moscow won't quit until Putin sees the goals of the 'special military operation' through. The alternatives include either nuclear-armed escalation (NATO vs. Russia) or ceasefire negotiations, and Zelensky is now being pressed to think about a "plan B"—as The Wall Street Journal recently wrote.
Be realistic... is the new message coming from NATO allies to Zelensky. "Now, with Russia continuing to make slow gains on the battlefield and Western support for Ukraine showing signs of fatigue, Ukraine may need to come up with a more realistic plan, at least for the next year of the war, according to European diplomats," WSJ wrote last week.
"The West still backs Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s long-term stated aim of taking back control of its territory," the report continued. "But some European diplomats say Ukraine needs to be more pragmatic in its wartime aims and strategy. That could help Western officials advocate to their respective voters the need to funnel arms and aid to the country."
...Or to put it another way, the taxpaying Western public wants this conflict to end as fast as possible, and without sinking billions more into it, because they are sick and tired of the constant escalation and want to see peace.
Earlier this month White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby spelled out that "Certainly a negotiated end is the most likely outcome here, but when that happens, and under what conditions and circumstances, that’s going to be up to President Zelensky."
And yet, simultaneous to this talk of a "plan B" toward peace negotiations, the US and UK are mulling allowing Kiev to attack Russian territory with long-range weapons.
Bloomberg on Tuesday has followed WSJ's reporting by confirming that Western diplomats are increasingly vocal on the prospect of a quicker negotiated end to the drawn out conflict.
"As part of their discussions of strategy for the next year, officials are more seriously gaming out how a negotiated end to the conflict and an off-ramp could take shape, according to people familiar with the matter who asked for anonymity to discuss private deliberations," the report says. But the hawks are concerned this could lead to a 'pre-mature' ceasefire.
The report continues:
The people made clear that any decision to negotiate would be for Kyiv to make and that nobody is pressuring Volodomyr Zelenskyy into talks. Ukraine’s president has been adamant, publicly and privately, that ceding territory to Russia would be unfair, the people said. With no sign that Russia has scaled back its objectives, the prospect of real negotiations still remains distant, they said.
But as the war heads toward another winter, there’s little sign of breakthrough on the battlefield. That’s prompting some allied officials to start exploring ways in which diplomacy could break the deadlock.
Indeed the question of what's fair or unfair is a moot point, as the outcome is being decided on the battlefield, hence the growing pressure for Kiev to get serious about negotiations.
Pro-Ukraine hawks are still pushing hard for US to greenlight escalation...
NEW!!! Still no new announcement on Ukraine’s request to strike back deep inside russia, State Dept says.
— Alex Raufoglu (@ralakbar) September 17, 2024
“How do you expect Ukraine to win this war with one hand tied behind?” — I asked DoS Spox 👇🏻👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/AYpPOUC72Z
But Zelensky still hopes to draw NATO in deeper, which is why the big lobbying push has been in full swing for the US/UK to allow launching missiles deep into Russian territory. The Biden administration has looked hesitant in the face of Putin threats and red lines, and this is a good thing. Let's hope saner minds prevail and that negotiations begin soon.