What's Really Behind Poland's Interest In Deporting Ukrainian Draft-Dodgers?
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz expressed support in an interview for Ukraine’s latest conscription-related policy of refusing consular services for draft-aged men aged 18-60. The form of assistance that Warsaw provides Kiev in returning these draft-dodgers depends on the regime, but he implied that his country might hunt down and deport them. This reading is predicated on him calling their service a “civic duty” and saying that Poles are “outraged” seeing these men hanging out in cafes.
Late last year, “WaPo Amplified The Arguments Of Ukrainian Draft Dodgers Right As Zelensky Wants More Conscripts”, which suggested some sympathy for their plight in being forced to fight. Meanwhile, this piece here from around the same time analyzed the dilemma that EU countries would face if Ukraine requested that they deport these draft-dodgers, some of whom have refugee status, while these two surveys in March and April show that mutual Polish-Ukrainian perceptions are worsening.
Accordingly, Poland could come under some foreign media pressure if it forcibly deports those Ukrainian men within its territory who Kiev calls up to serve after previously allowing them to live in the country, including as refugees.
Additionally, average Ukrainians might begin to hate Poles if they interpret this move as being driven by a nationalist desire to punish them for changing the country’s demographics.
The end result could be that Poland ruins its reputation in the West and Ukraine just to fuel this doomed conflict.
About that, the country’s new coalition government is liberal-globalist and thus earned applause from their fellow travelers who currently control most of the West, but some factions among the latter might strongly disagree in principle with deporting Ukrainians (including refugees) to the front. Likewise, this same government wanted to improve ties with Ukraine that soured at the end of their conservative-nationalist predecessor’s tenure, but this would only benefit the regime at the expense of its people.
“The US’ Long-Delayed Aid To Ukraine Might Prevent Its Collapse But Won’t Push Russia Back”, and no amount of draft refugee meat that Poland or whoever else throws into the grinder will change that.
The military-strategic dynamics decisively favor Russia due to its victory in the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition” with NATO. It therefore wouldn’t make a difference even in the impossible event that all estimated 860,000 adult Ukrainian men living in the EU were deported to the front.
The only potential benefit to this policy is if the conservative-nationalist opposition relieves some of their pressure upon Tusk’s liberal-globalist government if he deports all Ukrainian draft-dodgers from Poland.
He’d risk some foreign media pressure and further worsening average Ukrainians’ views of Poles, but he might gamble that this is worth it, especially if it’s positively spun by some of his liberal-globalist peers abroad as “solidarity with the cause” of defeating Russia. Tusk might then gain more than he’d lose.