Betting On TACO? Oil Slides Despite Unraveling 'Diplomacy' In Iran; Trump Warns China & Russia
Summary
- Diplomacy signals emerge: Pakistan is reportedly exploring renewed US-Iran talks, while Trump is set to meet Netanyahu next week amid the escalating conflict.
- War continues with 13th straight night of bombing: The US carried out a 13th straight night of strikes on Iran as Tehran launched fresh attacks on US-linked targets in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Iraq.
- Oil eases: Crude prices fell by week's end despite continued fighting, as scant reports of possible diplomatic efforts outweighed ongoing regional attacks.
- Trump warns Russia, China: Trump cautioned China and Russia against supplying arms or targeting help to Iran.
- Political pressure grows at home: A new Fox News poll found most Americans oppose the Iran war, while reports say Trump is increasingly frustrated as the conflict drags on.
* * *
Oil Eases by Week's End on Signs of 'Diplomacy Lite'
Somewhat surprisingly, oil prices are pushing lower by week's close, especially after a succession of perhaps 'diplomacy-lite' headlines; however, the reality still remains is that the bombing campaign is escalating... and typically the region witnesses the biggest bombs away on a weekend, with markets closed:
- Pakistan exploring path toward resuming US-Iran talks: Reuters
- Pakistan's push to resume talks follows pressure from China: Reuters
- Houthis say they don't seek to close key Bab al-Mandeb Strait (only for Saudi shipping, they say)
- Trump to meet Netanyahu at the White House on Tuesday amid Iran escalation
Trump on China, Russia Assistance to Iran
President Trump took to Truth Social to warn China and Russia against giving or selling arms to Iran, saying: "If they did, it would be very bad for them". However he also sought to clarify: "In my opinion, (they are) not participating."
Doing so was "certainly not in their best interests" - the president added. The president addressed a Reuters report that alleged Iranian strikes on CIA targets in the Gulf earlier in the war is being investigated, on concerns that Russia or China may have helped with such targeting.
Xi "told me he would not," Trump wrote. Was there a pinky promise?...
Iraqi Prime Minister Denies NYT Report on Ceasefire Offer
The latest little peace overture by Washington widely reported Thursday night was apparently a big nothingburger, as on Friday the Iraqi prime minister’s office has denied a New York Times report claiming that Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal delivered to Tehran by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi.
The fresh statement from the prime minister's office said what was published in the Times was "entirely unfounded" and had "no relation to reality." The statement underscored the temporary nature of the proposal and that it was the "only offer on the table" and still left the question of control over the Strait of Hormuz unresolved - and so Tehran was uninterested.
It's also the reality that Tehran wants to see Trump sweat and impose economic and political costs particularly ahead of the midterms in November, where Congressional Republicans must face voters over failing to rein in Trump's Iran war. The Iranians continue to openly voice this, for example in the following from the parliament speaker:
They wanted to punish Iran.
— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) July 23, 2026
Punished themselves with triple-digit oil instead.
10/10 strategy👏👏👏 pic.twitter.com/w80f1Xzuvk
13th Straight Night of US Bombing
Meanwhile, in what is becoming a brutal, nightly routine, US Central Command (CENTCOM) has wrapped up its 13th consecutive wave of airstrikes against Iran. The Pentagon said it targeted military command centers, drone storage facilities, communication networks, and coastal surveillance sites.
Iranian state media reported overnight into Friday heavy explosions rocking major hubs across the country, including Khorramabad, Jask, Ahvaz, Bandar Abbas, and the strategic outpost of Qeshm Island. Iranian media further said a US missile strike left four dead and five injured in the key industrial and transportation hub of Ahvaz.
As the bombs fall, Tehran is still signaling that military pressure won't force a cheap surrender - with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi lashing out at the US escalation, warning that "mindless aggression" will only see Trump pay a "heavier price" for a deal to end the war.
More Iran Retaliation on Gulf
Iranian retaliation on US-linked sites in the Gulf have continued at the same steady pace, with on Friday Bahrain's military having intercepted "several treacherous Iranian air attacks" - according to the general command of the Bahrain Defense Force.
The Bahraini military further denounced Iran's "systematic hostile approach" and "criminal attacks targeting civilians". The statement emphasized, "The general command emphasises that the deliberate use of missiles and drones to target civilians and private property constitutes a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law."
Throughout the morning the Iranian military's targets also included locations in Jordan, Kuwait, and northern Iraq. Sky News is reporting that "Explosions were also heard near a base hosting the US in Iraq, near the Erbil International Airport."
Fox Poll says Iran War More Unpopular Then Ever
Fox feeding its Boomer audience some Freedom Viagra with a helping of war crimes on the side:
Fox News discussion about Iran's infrastructure:
— The American Conservative (@amconmag) July 23, 2026
"What do you think we might hit first?"
"I don't know if we'll hit it first, but the Damavand plant supplies 40% of Tehran's electricity." pic.twitter.com/VpYVT2X4lI
But Fox News also reports the results of its latest poll which finds 56% oppose the ongoing American military action against Iran, including 40% who "strongly" oppose. "Disapproval of President Donald Trump’s handling of Iran hit a record high in July," Fox writes.
"A majority of voters oppose U.S. military action, and nearly two thirds think the conflict will last at least a year," the report says.
A Frustrated Trump is in 'Revenge Mode'
This as The Wall Street Journal does an entire investigative report which should be laughably obvious to any careful observer to what's been going on and the deepening quagmire the US is getting itself into:
As the war in Iran enters its fifth month, Trump is increasingly frustrated that a conflict he once thought would be over in a matter of weeks has dragged on with no end in sight, administration officials and others close to the president said.
Some of Trump’s advisers now worry that the war—which has resulted in higher prices, falling approval ratings and the deaths of more than a dozen U.S. servicemembers—is consuming his presidency and damaging Republicans’ already dim prospects in the coming midterm elections.
Alarmingly, the WSJ noted that Trump seems in "revenge mode" against Tehran, and apparently sees no other options than to try and keep bombing his way out of it. Of course, this script has been written many times - not only during the "Global War on Terror" and this millennium's "forever wars" - but going all the way back to the Vietnam war.
NBC: The four service members being flown from the Middle East to Dover Air Force Base were 28-year-old Angel S. Rampersad of New York, 30-year-old Michael Emmanuel Swinton of North Carolina, 25-year-old Tyler James Feehan of Hawaii and 19-year-old Isabella Gonzales of Texas.
War Takes "Toll" on White House: WSJ
The war is said to be taking a heavy "toll" on Trump and his top officials. According to more of what's also been glaringly obvious for anyone who has had a shred of independent thought:
The war is splitting the conservative coalition over which Trump once had an iron grip, worrying some Republicans close to the White House. Longtime Trump allies such as Fox News host Laura Ingraham have used their platforms to express concerns about how the war might affect Republicans in November’s midterm elections. On Monday, she said the “clock is ticking” to the midterms.
“Netanyahu has led us into a horrible conflict filled with lies,” Steve Bannon, a longtime Trump adviser, said. “People can see with their own eyes what’s going on.”
While this part about Netanyahu is true, it is ultimately President Trump who made the decision, after for years prior - and especially on the campaign trail - articulately spelling out that attacking Iran and starting new Mideast wars would be one of most idiotic foreign policy moves a president could make.
Trump on Thursday said he would take funds from Iran to pay for damage inflicted on US bases and assets throughout the war. Iran responded in the following...
Seizing another nation's assets to pay for unrelated future claims is an incendiary precedent.
— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) July 24, 2026
Those who celebrate or profit from such funds should remember: once governments normalize confiscation, no one's assets are safe. Ensuing chaos will not be pretty or peaceful.
Perhaps the utter folly of Operation Epic Fury has finally begun to dawn on the president. WSJ also observed that "Last month, the president was so excited at the prospect of signing the memorandum of understanding with Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that he was dismissive of Republican allies who said the Iranians would never stick to the agreement, according to a senior administration official. He wanted it to be over, Trump told them."