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Vance's Pakistan Trip 'On Hold' After Iran Demands Lifting Blockade Of Its Ports, Talks Appear Off

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by Tyler Durden
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Summary

  • Vance's trip to Islamabad 'on hold' as talks appear off for now after Iran demanded US lift blockade of ports.

  • Neither side wants to appear 'weak' by flying to Pakistan first without the other side having already clearly committed. Trump warns: 'Expect...bombs' & urges Tehran "release women" said to be on death row.

  • Overnight, US forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani in Indo-Pac region: CENTCOM

  • As just 12 ships have gone through Hormuz Strait in last 24 hours, Iran claims one of its own made it past the US naval blockade. CENTOM says 28 turned around.

  • Trump on Truth Social early Tuesday: Iran has Violated the Cease Fire numerous times!

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Yes 30% · No 71%
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US Delegation Trip for Talks 'On Hold'

As VP Vance has been seen at the White House, clearly not en route to Pakistan for Iran talks, a hugely significant headline has sent oil up and stocks dumping more:

  • VP Vance's Pakistan trip has been put on hold as Iran's leadership remained divided over whether to participate in a new round of peace talks, via Axios
  • VANCE TRIP ON HOLD AS IRAN DIDN'T RESPOND TO US POSITIONS: NYT
  • VANCE TRIP TO PAKISTAN HAS NOT BEEN CANCLED: NYT

Newsquawk market reaction: Stocks see weakness, while oil and Dollar gain amid NYT reports that VP Vance’s diplomatic trip to Islamabad has been put on hold after Tehran failed to respond to American negotiating positions.

Latest from Iran Foreign Minister:

Iran Last-Minute Major Demand

Talks are in peril as it's unclear whether Vice President JD Vance intends to depart today for Pakistan, though Axios says he will. And now the Iranian side is imposing a new key demand to even get to the negotiating table - the lifting of the US Navy's blockade of Iranian ports:

Iran has cast doubt over a second round of peace talks with the U.S. in Islamabad after refusing to publicly commit to attend the talks this week, as the expiration of a ceasefire looms.

Tehran had initially told mediators that it would send a delegation to Pakistan Tuesday for talks but later informed them that the U.S. would have to lift its blockade on Iran ports, according to officials.

Pakistan is urging the U.S. and Iran to extend the two-week cease-fire and continue to work toward a diplomatic solution. Vice President J.D. Vance is expected the lead the U.S. delegation.

President Trump has said he doesn't intend to sign on to any ceasefire extension, and it expires by Wednesday. He has also warned the Iranians should "expect" bombs if no breakthrough can be found.

Trump to Iran: Release These Women

President Trump has suddenly pivoted to making the 'humanitarian' or 'protect the protesters' argument once again. He has just written on Truth Social the following words, while sharing the below image of eight Iranian women allegedly on death row:

To the Iranian leaders, who will soon be in negotiations with my representatives: I would greatly appreciate the release of these women. I am sure that they will respect the fact that you did so. Please do them no harm! Would be a great start to our negotiations!!! Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Whether these women are actually about to be hanged is another, lingering question (there's no legitimate sourcing confirming that a group of eight women are about to be hanged) - but clearly Trump is trying to inject some more leverage on the US side before the second-round Pakistan talks even get started.

He had quickly followed the above with the below message talking about having 'obliterated' Iran's 'nuclear dust' to the point that the Iranians can't get to it:

Trump: Iran Has No Choice, 'Expect' Bombs

President Trump on Tuesday said he expects a strong outcome from negotiations with Iran, telling CNBC that "they will end up with a great deal." He added that "Iran has no choice, it is regime change no matter what you want to call it," and emphasized that the US is in "a strong negotiating position."

He said the naval blockade "has been successful" and that US forces are "in control of the Strait." Trump also stated he does not want to extend the ceasefire, saying "there is not that much time" - but added that "Iran can get itself onto good footing with a deal."

He also acknowledged that Iran has likely continued to do missile restocking in the ceasefire interim period, and also moving its remaining missile arsenal around. But Trump also claimed the US is "much more powerful than it was a few weeks again" and that CENTCOM used the ceasefire to restock as well. Importantly he also said the US is "ready to go militarily" and that the world should "expect" bombing - in the instance there's no Pakistan deal reached. And an interesting China reference:

  • Caught an Iranian ship with gifts from China, thought he had an understanding with China's Xi, says "that's alright".

Pakistan Talks: Timeline Still Up in the Air

Who will fly to Islamabad first? Al Jazeera comments on the emerging diplomatic standoff before actual diplomacy even gets started, amid the continued tit-for-tat threats of potential escalation on the battlefield:

Pakistan is ready to host the talks. They are planning for them to take place on Wednesday at the highest level. But the White House has been very tight-lipped about when JD Vance will be leaving Washington.

What appears to be going on is the US trying to protect itself from embarrassment.

If it is to send its team, which ends up sitting here in Islamabad without Iran showing up, that would be a huge embarrassment. As a result, there now appears to be a game between the US and Iran over who is going to get on their plane and fly here first.

Per Bloomberg at about 4am US time: "Iran’s state-run TV denies unspecified media reports that an Iranian delegation has departed for or arrived in Pakistan for negotiations with the US." Latest:

Al Jazeera reports: Mediators received confirmation of US VP Vance and Iran's Ghalifab's arrival in Islamabad at dawn Wednesday to lead talks.

At the same time, per WSJ, Iran has informed regional mediators that it will send a delegation to Islamabad after for days of repeatedly refusing to commit to a new round of negotiations. However, there's not been official confirmation, only signaling, with Pakistani officials insisting the Iranians will be there. And yet, it was only on Monday that Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said that there was no plan for a second round of negotiations.

But if all goes well, Vice President Vance is expected to depart for Pakistan today, leading the delegation which includes Kushner and Witkoff. As a reminder, on Monday President Trump said "lots of bombs" will be unleased on Iran if there is no deal, and also given the White House doesn't plan to extend the ceasefire. The key issues of Iran's nuclear program and the Hormuz Strait loom large. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has at the same time warned: "we do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and over the past two weeks we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield".

Another Vessel Interdiction by US Navy

US forces boarded a sanctioned tanker without resistance in the Indo-Pacific as part of operations targeting vessels linked to Iran, the Pentagon said on X. Initial statements did not indicate a precise location, and clearly it did not occur in the Hormuz Strait. Washington recently announced it is ready to seize 'illicit' Iran-linked vessels anywhere on the high seas. The move follows Sunday's major boarding of an Iranian-flagged vessel, when a US warship opened fire as it attempted to transit the strait, striking and damaging the engine room.

CENTCOM: Overnight, U.S. forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani without incident in the INDOPACOM area of responsibility.



"As we have made clear, we will pursue global maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt illicit networks and interdict sanctioned vessels providing material support to Iran—anywhere they operate," a CENTCOM post said. "International waters are not a refuge for sanctioned vessels. The Department of War will continue to deny illicit actors and their vessels freedom of maneuver in the maritime domain."

Iran has been referring to this incident as a second fresh US violation of the ceasefire, amid the tit-for-tat accusations:

Meanwhile...

Iran Claims Successfully Defied US Blockade

An Iranian oil tanker entered the territorial waters of Iran overnight after transiting the Arabian Sea with support from the country's navy, according to the army, and as reported in NBC. Semi-official Fars News Agency reported that the vessel continued its route despite what it described as repeated warnings and threats from US forces enforcing a Trump-ordered blockade on Iranian ports.

The tanker is now anchored at a southern Iranian port and has remained there for several hours, the report indicated. Tanker traffic remains at a tiny trickle, with 12 presumably US-approved vessels having made it through in the past 24 hours.

A sense of normalcy returns to Iran as countdown to Wednesday expiration of 2-week ceasefire weighs heavy...

There are even reports that Iran is ready to open up domestic air travel once again, but that could soon prove short-lived as President Trump's threats keep coming, and given the unlikelihood that Pakistan talks will in the end succeed.