Israel Delayed Iran Strike After US Intel Leak Of Attack Preparations
It has been over three weeks since Iran attacked Israel with huge ballistic missile strikes which numbered up to 200 projectiles, including alleged hypersonic missiles. At this point, one wonders whether Israel's promised 'retaliation' strike will even take place by October's end. Israeli officials have indicated it will happen before the US presidential election, however.
Israel's military continues to telegraph the coming attack, with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday having told pilots and air crews upon a visit to an air force base that "after we strike in Iran, everyone will understand what you did in the preparation and training process."
A new report in Britain’s The Times newspaper claims that the potential retaliatory attack was delayed further when US intelligence on Israel's preparations were leaked and made public.
"Israel is concerned the leak could help Iran predict certain patterns of attack," The Times writes. "It has been forced to develop an alternative plan, one that requires detailed war gaming before any order is given, The Times understands."
"The leak of the American documents delayed the attack due to the need to change certain strategies and components," an intelligence source described as having knowledge of Israeli deliberations said.
"There will be a retaliation, but it has taken longer than it was supposed to take," the source told The Times.
The pair of documents were marked top secret and first appeared online Friday, and following an Axios report which verified their authenticity made headlines across the globe. They were authored by the Department of Defense National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) and the NSA.
One of the documents tracked the movements of heavy Israeli munitions from US spy satellites. "It made reference to Golden Horizon and Rocks, two Israeli air-launched ballistic missiles," The Times notes - hence the concern over Iranians possibly being able to recognize 'patterns' on weapons movements based on the leak.
Officials have called this the most serious intelligence breach in years, which could damage the US-Israel intelligence sharing relationship.
Mick Mulroy, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East and a retired CIA officer, explained to CNN that "the future coordination between the US and Israel could be challenged as well. Trust is a key component in the relationship, and depending on how this was leaked that trust could be eroded."
Oh dear. Did someone at NGA leak Top Secret TALENT KEYHOLE FIVE EYES NO FOREIGN EYES intelligence about Israel's nuclear weapons...on Twitter? pic.twitter.com/3lyKWFCmUw
— Eric Garland (@ericgarland) October 20, 2024
Internal investigations have looked at the possibility that the leak was through a "Five Eyes" partner - which is the intelligence alliance composed of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Reports have stated that the FBI and DoD believe the leak most likely came through an individual with clearance, and not a cyber intrusion or foreign hack. Given reports say that at least one of the documents was printed via a classified printer, it's likely on a matter of time before the leaker is caught.