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Tense Trump-Netanyahu Call As US Presses Iran To 'Sign The Document' - But Israel Wants Military Greenlight

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by Tyler Durden
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Summary

  • Axios: "Trump continues to say he thinks a deal can be reached, but that he's ready to resume the war if it isn't."

  • US Marines board Iranian-flagged tanker in the Gulf of Oman, as it was accused of attempting to violate the US naval blockade.

  • Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says that Tehran sees signs that the United States is seeking to restart the war

  • Oil tumbles after Pakistan again touts final deal draft text imminent, followed by Trump claiming US in 'final stages' of peace talks with Iran, though Tehran hasn't budged on nuclear issue.

  • Iran's IRGC Navy says 26 vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, transited in the prior 24 hours "in coordination" with Iranian authorities.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Yes 35% · No 66%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

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Iran Issues its Strait Passage Protocol

The following was issued from the Official Account of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority: 

The Islamic Republic of Iran has defined the boundaries of the Strait of Hormuz management supervision area as follows: "The line connecting Kuh Mobarak in Iran and the south of Fujairah in the UAE in the east of the strait to the line connecting the end of Qeshm Island in Iran and Umm al-Qaiwain in the UAE in the west of the strait."

The statement adds: "Frequencies in this range for passing through the Strait of Hormuz require coordination with the Persian Gulf Waterway Management and a permit from this entity."

Trump: 'Sign the Document' for Face War's Resumption

Trump and Netanyahu had a reported tense phone call related to ongoing Iran talks, and a proposed peace deal on the table. Netanyahu is said to be seeking a greenlight for renewed military action against Tehran, at a moment the Iranians have not compromised on the nuclear issue.

Per fresh reporting in Axios: "Trump continues to say he thinks a deal can be reached, but that he's ready to resume the war if it isn't":

  • "The only question is do we go and finish it up or are they gonna be signing a document. Let's see what happens," he said on Wednesday at the Coast Guard Academy.
  • Trump also said Netanyahu "will do whatever I want him to do" on Iran, though he also said they had a good relationship. The two leaders have had temporary disagreements on Iran before but have remained closely coordinated throughout the war.
  • Iran has confirmed it's reviewing an updated proposal, but has not yet shown any signs of flexibility.

The same report says of Israel's position that "Netanyahu is highly skeptical about the negotiations and wants to resume the war to further degrade Iran's military capabilities and weaken the regime by destroying its critical infrastructure."

US Marines Board Iran-Flagged Tanker

The Pentagon has announced that US Marines have boarded another Iranian-flagged tanker, this time in the Gulf of Oman. It had been accused of attempting to violate the US naval blockade, after which it was boarded.

But, as CENTCOM says, "American forces released the vessel after searching and directing the ship’s crew to alter course." This as Iran's IRGC Navy says 26 vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, transited in the prior 24 hours "in coordination" with Iranian authorities (per state news).

Iran Confirms Ongoing Exchange of Messages with US

Some latest from Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: "Exchange of messages between Iranian and American sides continues based on the text of Iran's 14-point resolution." And more:

  • Iran's focus is on ending the war and fulfilling Iran's clear demands
  • The presence of the Pakistani Interior Minister is to facilitate the exchange of messages.
  • Baqaei: We are exchanging messages with suspicion and good intentions
  • Talking about ultimatums and deadlines regarding Iran is ridiculous.
  • Iran also says US has to prove its goodwill and stop "piracy" against Iranian ships

Ghalibaf: US Seeking To 'Start A New War'

Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says that Tehran sees signs that the United States is seeking to restart the war and still hopes the Islamic Republic will surrender:

"The enemy’s movements, both overt and clandestine, show that despite economic and political pressure, it has not abandoned its military objectives and is seeking to start a new war," Ghalibaf said in an audio message carried by Iranian media.

"Close monitoring of the situation in the United States reinforces the possibility that they still hope for the surrender of the Iranian nation," he adds.

Trump has given Iran 'days' - or also till the start of next week to come back to the table; however, on Wednesday he's actually touting a 'final' deal draft is near, despite Iran still not budging on the nuclear issue.

Oil Plunges Further on Trump Comment

Again, possibly just more jawboning, but oil's Wednesday morning plunge deepened upon Trump touting 'final stages' of talks with Iran... all of this as usually looking very premature...

  • TRUMP SAYS US IN 'FINAL STAGES' OF TALKS WITH IRAN: POOL REPORT
  • TRUMP SAYS 'WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS' W/ IRAN: POOL REPORT
  • TRUMP: DO WE FINISH IRAN UP OR WILL THEY SIGN, LET'S SEE
  • TRUMP: SEEING IN IRAN THAT US IS RESPECTED

Another Likely Premature 'Final' Peace Draft Headline, Oil Tumbles

Crude prices tumbled on a regional Al Hadath headline suggesting the "achievement of a final draft" of what will be Iran's latest peace proposal, though the recent pattern of this has shown little will likely come of it with Washington, amid ongoing apparent zero sum demands from each warring side. 

  • Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce achievement of final draft of agreement text. Next round of negotiations will be held in Islamabad after Hajj season: Al Hadath  
  • Event Sources: If the Pakistani Army Chief does not head to Iran, the achievement of the final agreement formula may be announced within hours

More per Newsquawk...

[MARKET UPDATE] Brent falls in excess of USD 3/bbl, WTI slips below USD 100/bbl, Equities bid and USD hit on reports the Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce achievement of final draft of agreement text

Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce achievement of final draft of agreement text; The next round of negotiations will be held in Islamabad after the Hajj season (25th to 30th May), Al Hadath reports

  • Sources say if Pakistani Army Chief does not head to Iran, the achievement of the final agreement formula may be announced within hours.
  • Work is underway in earnest to put the finishing touches on the text of an agreement between Washington and Tehran.

BUT...

IRGC Warns: Next Conflict Round Could Unleash 'War Beyond the Region'

Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, has summed up where things stand: "Since the ceasefire came into effect, both Washington and Tehran appear to be operating under the illusion that time is on their side," he said. "Each seems to believe that the blockade and counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz impose greater costs on the other, while offering a breathing space to regroup for a possible resumption of hostilities," Vaez told Al Jazeera.

On Wednesday Iran's Revolutionary Guards issued a fresh warning amid this ongoing standoff, warning that the Middle East war will extend beyond the region if the United States and Israel resume their attacks.

via Shutterstock

"If the aggression against Iran is repeated, the promised regional war will this time spread far beyond the region, and our devastating blows will crush you," the IRGC say in the statement published to their website Sepah News.

The warring sides are no closer to getting back to the negotiating table, after President Trump has given just a few 'days' to comply on the nuclear issue, which so far Tehran has not budged on.

But in the meantime Iran still sees American guarantees as "insufficient" regarding a renewed war, Al Arabiya reports Wednesday. The Supreme Leader, who is still in hiding and believed to be recovering from serious injuries that resulted from prior airstrikes, has issued a fresh written message to the public:

Mojtaba Khamenei has commemorated the second anniversary of the death of former President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, saying the country is putting up a “unique historical resistance against two global terrorist armies” in Israel and the US, the Fars News Agency reports. 

In another written statement, Khamenei said the war was making the burden on officials “heavier than before”, adding that he was grateful for the “unity of the nation”.

Iran: 26 Vessels Transit Strait in last 24-Hours Under its Protocol

In the Strait of Hormuz, there's been a continued trickle of tankers making it through, reportedly after Beijing asked:

Two Chinese tankers laden with oil exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, shipping data showed, brightening hopes that the US-Israeli conflict with Iran may soon be ​resolved after positive comments from the US president and his deputy.

President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the war would be over “very quickly” while Vice President JD Vance talked up progress in talks with Tehran about an agreement to end hostilities.

This as Iran's IRGC Navy says 26 vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, transited in the prior 24 hours "in coordination" with Iranian authorities (per SNN).

And reports of a South Korean tanker safely traversing at this point:

A South Korean oil tanker is currently passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the country’s top diplomat said on Wednesday, in a report from AFP.

“At this very moment, our oil tanker is passing through the Strait of Hormuz,” Foreign Minister Cho Hyun told lawmakers at the National Assembly in Seoul.

Ship-tracking site MarineTraffic showed the South Korea-flagged tanker Universal Winner on the eastern side of the Strait of Hormuz near the entrance to the Gulf of Oman, bound for the southeastern South Korean city of Ulsan after departing Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi port.

'Big Hit' Preparation Underway?

As a reminder of prior Trump threats this week, and the typically vague timetable, the president on Tuesday renewed warnings that he could imminently resume bombing Iran, declaring the country will face a "big hit" if it refuses to accept US demands for a deal within days.

"Well, I mean, I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, something, maybe early next week, a limited period of time, because we can’t let them have a new nuclear weapon," Trump told reporters. Trump had the day prior said he was "holding off" on striking Iran on after requests from Gulf Arab states. Then he followed by claiming the attack was moments away from being launched. "We were all set to go… It would have been happening right now."

More Latest

More latest developments via Newsquawk:

  • US intelligence assessment recently showed that US forces identified at least 10 mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to CBS citing US officials.
  • US Senate voted 50-47 to advance war powers resolution that would end US strikes on Iran unless approved by Congress.
  • Iran's IRGC said that if the attack on Iran occurs again, the war will extend beyond the region, Fars News reported.
  • Iranian Deputy to the President Banah said Tehran is open to negotiations within national interests, Al Mayadeen reported.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said months after the start of the war on Iran, US Congress acknowledged the loss of dozens of aircraft worth billions, and Iran's powerful Armed Forces are confirmed as the first to strike down a touted F-35, while he added that with lessons learned and the knowledge they gained, a return to war will feature many more surprises.
  • Iran-Pakistan cooperation had declined/stopped over the past two weeks, Al Arabiya and Al Hadath reported citing a senior diplomatic source. A diplomatic source says Iran and Pakistan held conflicting positions on negotiation channels and the venue for talks, and says mistrust was affecting coordination between Iran and Pakistan.
  • Pakistan's Interior Minister Naqvi is on route to Tehran, according to Journalist Mallick.
  • "On the verge of a decision: Trump and Netanyahu held a phone conversation last night that was described as “lengthy and dramatic,” according to journalist Segal.
  • Two Chinese supertankers, carrying 4mln barrels of oil, exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, according to tracking data. It was later reported that India was preparing to send oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz following prior reports regarding the Chinese tankers.
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