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Biden Admin Pushes New Lebanon Ceasefire Plan As IDF Hints At Ground Invasion

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by Tyler Durden
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Update(1515ET): The Pentagon has sought to make clear in an afternoon press statement that the US military is not providing intelligence for Israel's operations against Lebanese Hezbollah. The Pentagon also claimed the Biden administration is currently making a "full-court" press to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis. The statement further asserted that from the US vantage point, an Israeli military invasion of south Lebanon does not look 'imminent'.

Still, the head of Israel's military, as well as Israeli media and other officials, have continued to sound strong warnings that a ground invasion is possible, and might even begin at any moment.

Lebanese news site LBCI is currently claiming that urgent US-led ceasefire talks are happening, and that they've already resulted in "significant progress" and have reached "a serious and advanced stage." The outlet expressed hope for the announcement of a major breakthrough by tomorrow morning.

And Axios is also reporting the following:

  • Over the last two days, the U.S. has been discussing the idea with France, Israel, Lebanon and several other Arab countries, a U.S. official and a European diplomat said.
  • "We are working with several countries on a proposal for a diplomatic solution for the north," a U.S. official confirmed.
  • "Netanyahu gave a green light to discuss this initiative," an Israeli official said.

But as far as the battlefield goes, each side has continued trading rocket and drone attacks at an intensified pace. A couple of Israeli civilians were wounded within the last hours:

Barrages of Hezbollah rockets continued to pound northern Israel on Wednesday, as the IDF carried out fresh waves of airstrikes in south Lebanon and warned that a ground offensive could be the next step.

The terror group launched a barrage of 30 rockets toward the Western Galilee and towns east of Haifa on Wednesday afternoon, wounding two people in a direct impact in Kibbutz Sa’ar near Nahariya. Magen David Adom said a 35-year-old man was seriously wounded by shrapnel and a 52-year-old man was moderately hurt.

Meanwhile the pro-Iranian Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed a new missile strike on Israeli territory. It issues a Telegram statement saying the attacks were "in support of the people in Palestine and Lebanon and in response to the massacres" committed by Israel.

* * *

After Hezbollah's launch of an Iran-made ballistic missile on Tel Aviv, a first of the war which we detailed earlier, Israel is preparing to activate two reserve brigades for ongoing operations on its 'northern front' with Lebanon.

A fresh statement by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said boosting forces with reserve manpower will "enable the continuation of the fighting efforts against Hezbollah, the protection of Israeli citizens and creating conditions for the return of the residents of the north safely back home."

This comes simultaneous to talk of a ground offensive in southern Lebanon, which would mark a first since the 2006 war, which proved somewhat devastating for both sides. The IDF chief has said "we are preparing for a ground maneuver" in Lebanon ahead of an important security cabinet meeting under PM Netanyahu.

Via AFP

The head of the Israeli army’s Northern Command, Major General Ori Gordin, has said in new statements issued to his forces that they should "strongly prepare" for a ground offensive.

Gen. Gordin addressed troops who are reportedly conducting exercises simulating a ground invasion. He said the campaign "began with a very significant blow to Hezbollah’s capabilities" with a focus on attacking Hezbollah's launch locations, preparing the way for more effective ground maneuvers. He stressed in the comments that the IDF needs "to change the security situation" and be "strongly prepared to enter Lebanon in a [ground] maneuver."

Israel has already activated some reserve units is multiple waves related to combating Hamas in Gaza - an operation which is fast approaching the one-year mark.

Israel has been warning Lebanese civilians to flee the south, which has included aircraft dropping leaflets telling people to evacuate to the north of the country. All of this strongly suggests a ground invasion could be imminent: 

Since Monday, Israel has widened its airstrikes in Lebanon, targeting more than 2,000 Hezbollah sites and killing at least 569 people, including 50 children. Nearly 500,000 people have been internally displaced as they fled the heavy airstrikes in the south and east, according to the Lebanese Foreign Ministry.

"The east" is a reference to the heavy bombardment of the Bekka Valley, another Hezbollah stronghold where heavy weapons and ammo are believed stored.

Calls from the United Nations for de-escalation and a diplomatic path forward have fallen on deaf ears. The White House on Wednesday issued a new statement which called Hezbollah's launch of a ballistic missile at Tel Aviv "concerning". 

White House national security council spokesman John Kirby told CNN it was "Deeply concerning." He called out Iran in particular: "Evidence again… that Israel is facing a legitimate threat from a terrorist group backed by Iran," he said.

Below: Israeli strike reportedly in Mount Lebanon area, southeast of Beirut:

"The United States continues to support Israel’s right to defend itself," he added. "No nation should have to live with these threats right across their border, right next door."

As for Iran, it appears reluctant to enter the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in any direct way, though there is a likelihood that IRGC officers are on the ground in Lebanon. In the 2006 war IRGC operatives played an advisory role as Hezbollah launched sophisticated weapons at Israel. There are fresh reports saying Tehran has specifically denied a Hezbollah request to attack Israel directly:

The Islamic Republic has backed off requests from their Hezbollah proxies to attack Israel in response to last summer’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, three sources informed Axios on Tuesday.

Two Israeli officials told the news provider that authorities in the Iran regime believe “the timing isn’t right” for their involvement because the theocracy’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, is attending the 79th United Nations General Assembly in New York.

A Western diplomat confirmed the revelation, stating that Washington’s intelligence services have determined Hezbollah’s leadership reached out to their Tehran-based supporters for assistance in recent days.

Iranian leadership has instead seen Israel's actions as all about setting "traps" - in the words of President Masoud Pezeshkian. He has said the Islamic Republic won't fall into Netanyahu's plans for wider war. 

Currently, Syria's Assad has also appeared reluctant to jump in, only offering assistance to Lebanon in various areas. Hundreds of Lebanese civilians have reportedly fled into Syria as a result of Israel's bombing campaign this week.

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