For now, Maduro’s rhetoric remains largely symbolic and political bluster. But his remarks have unsettled Guyana’s leader and attracted stern statements from the United States and Brazil urging Venezuela to refrain from using military force to enforce its territorial claim.
Guyanese President Irfaan Ali said in a CNN interview this week that Maduro’s declaration was a “desperate attempt by Venezuela to seize” his country’s territories. “We are taking every precautionary measure,” he said, including appeals to the United States, Brazil and the United Nations for diplomatic and defense support to deter a Venezuelan invasion. -WaPo
Guyana Situation Rapidly Deteriorates As Maduro Arrests Opposition Figures Amid Joint Military Drills With US
Update (1600ET): The situation in Guayana is rapidly deteriorating, as Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has issued arrest warrants for opposition politicians who are challenging his move to annex oil-rich Essequibo.
As Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com reports; Maduro has officially placed the disputed territory of oil-rich Essequibo under military jurisdiction, putting oil exploration and production operations of Exxon and Chevron at risk.
Following a Sunday referendum, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has declared the return of Essequibo, which represents some two-thirds of Guyana’s territory, to Venezuela.
According to T&T News, Venezuela’s Prosecutor's Office has issued arrest warrants for a dozen opposition members, including former National Assembly head Juan Guaido and three members of staff of opposition presidential candidate Maria Corina Machado. The three are charged with conspiring against the Sunday referendum to annex Essequibo.
Dear @WhiteHouse are you aware that @JoeBiden's new oil BFF Maduro has issued arrest warrants for a dozen opposition members, including Juan Guaido
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 7, 2023
How is that sanctions easing going by the way?https://t.co/CBvWjdXiT5
The recent temporary easing of U.S. oil sanctions on Venezuela were conditioned on the holding of free and fair elections in 2024.
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While the U.S. has offered Guyana “unwavering support for Guyana’s sovereignty”, there has been no concrete talk of reversing the easing of sanctions based on Maduro’s actions.
Exxon, which is targeting 1.2 million barrels per day of crude output from Guyana’s offshore Stabroek oil block by the end of 2027, has refrained from commenting on the developing situation, telling journalists earlier this week only that it believes “border issues are matters for governments and appropriate international organizations to address”.
In a comment shared with IBT on Wednesday, Chevron said: "Chevron has a long history and excellent record of being a partner of choice in the countries in which we have operations. We always aim to be, and we are a constructive presence in the countries where we operate."
A consortium controlled by ExxonMobil holds a 45% in the Stabroek block, with Chevron, which recently acquired Hess, holding a 30% stake and China’s CNOOC holding a 25% stake.
On Tuesday, Maduro vowed to begin handing out exploration and extraction licenses “immediately” and ordered full compliance from foreign oil companies operating in the area.
Both U.S. and Guyanese officials have shared their hopes for a peaceful resolution with Venezuela. Guyana's president, Irfaan Ali, told CBS News in a Tuesday interview that the country would prepare military assets with its allies to ready itself for "the worst case scenario," but said he hopes the conflict does not come to that.
"Our first line of defense is diplomacy," Ali told CBS News, adding that Guyana has reached out to leaders abroad, including in the U.S., India and Cuba, hoping that "they can encourage Venezuela to do what is right, and ensure that they do not act in a reckless or adventurous manner that could disrupt the peace within this zone." -CBS News
The Maduro administration, meanwhile, has blasted the drills as a "provocation."
"This unfortunate provocation by the United States in favor... of ExxonMobil in Guyana is another step in the wrong direction. We warn that we will not be diverted from our future actions for the recovery of the Essequibo," said Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez in a post to X.
* * *
Meanwhile, the United States announced joint military drills in Guyana on Thursday.
"In collaboration with the Guyana Defense Force, the U.S. Southern Command will conduct flight operations within Guyana on December 7," the US Embassy in Guyana said in a statement, calling the flights part of "routine engagement and operations to enhance security partnership" between the US and Guyana and "to strengthen regional cooperation."
"The U.S. will continue its commitment as Guyana's trusted security partner and promoting regional cooperation and interoperability," the statement continued.
* * *
To recap the rapidly evolving situation in Guyana...
Neighboring Venezuela now considers around three-quarters of the oil-rich nation theirs - with President Nicolás Maduro presenting a map on television that shows Guyana's Esequibo region as under the jurisdiction of Caracas.
Maduro vowed to create a Venezuelan state known as Guyana Esequibo, for which he will grant Venezuelan citizenship to Guyanese residents there.
Maduro will has granted licenses and ordered state oil company PDVSA and state metal conglomerate CVG to drill for oil in the area.
A special military unit will be created for the territory.
Energy companies in the Esequibo region such as Exxon Mobil will "have three months to withdraw."
Guyanese President Irfaan Ali said he would report the matter to the UN Security Council, saying in a late-night televised address "The Guyana Defense Force is on high alert," adding "Venezuela has clearly declared itself an outlaw nation."
The UN Security Council will hold a closed-door meeting on the issue Friday, Bloomberg reports.
And last night, a Guyana army helicopter was reported missing near the border with Venezuela.
Guyana army helicopter reported missing near border with Venezuela: govt
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 7, 2023
Here we go
Now, the US State Department is involved.
"Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke with Guyanese President Dr. Mohamed Irfaan Ali to reaffirm the United States’ unwavering support for Guyana’s sovereignty," said the State Department in a late Wednesday news release.
Department spokesman Matthew Miller also told reporters that the Biden administration supports a peaceful resolution.
As we noted on Friday - why would Maduro do this now, when Caracas has for more than 200 years claimed rights over Esequibo, a vast swath of the territory Guyana? Simple: because as we said several days ago, it was only a few months ago that Maduro realized he has leverage over the US president of the "most powerful nation in the world" and get away with anything... even invading a sovereign nation.
Venezuela has long claimed the 61,000-square-mile region. Guyana has repeatedly rejected those claims, saying an 1899 international arbitration resolved the dispute. Venezuela has in turn questioned the validity of that ruling. Just last week, the International Court of Justice urged both sides to refrain from “any action which might aggravate or extend the dispute.” -WaPo
As Austin Bay writes at The Epoch Times, the region has a legacy of overlapping claims.
Spain claimed the Essequibo region was within the borders of Venezuela, but Great Britain and the Netherlands disputed that. Guyana was a British colony. In 1899 an arbitration tribunal in Paris, with the U.S. mediating, ruled that the region belonged to Britain.
Maduro portrays himself as a warrior seeking to right great historical wrongs. Well, playing drama king is easier than fixing a broken economy.
Maduro may be toying with a replay of 1982 when another shaky dictator thought a foreign war to distract his citizens was a dandy idea. The shaky dictator was Argentina’s Gen. Leopoldo Galtieri who proceeded to invade the Falkland Islands (Las Malvinas). He bet seizing the islands from the British “imperialists”—“recovering” them Galtieri called it—would unite Argentinians.
Britain, led by Margaret Thatcher, counterattacked, Argentina lost, and Galtieri’s regime collapsed.
All bark, no bite?
Interestingly, oil is nonplussed by the recent moves. Maybe because Venezuela won't be able to occupy the "new state?"
This is the effective end of this #Venezuela temper tantrum. With even a tiny deployment of US drones and airpower, occupying the "new state" will be impossible for VZ and their decrepit army and air force.
— Volte-Face Investments (@VolteFaceInvest) December 7, 2023
This is why the #oil market is ignoring this. Its just Maduro pulling… https://t.co/CaT1RXeZem pic.twitter.com/PTtB0S2SZ7
As WaPo further notes;
Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods was similarly nonplussed. In a Thursday CNBC interview, he suggested that Maduro is going to have a fight on his hands.
"There's concern that Venezuela is going to invade a certain part of the country," said host David Faber.
"I'd put it in the context of what's been happening for many, many years," Woods responded. "It is a matter between nation states... I'm not sure Guyana is standing on its own, to tell you the truth. We've all seen what happens when nations' sovereignties are challenged, and uniliteral action is taken. The world and the outside community is pretty sensitive to that, so my expectation is that there is more broad support in the international community to make sure that the right processes are followed to resolve this dispute."
Neighboring Brazil, meanwhile, has reinforced its northern border in the state of Roraima, adding armored vehicles and more troops, according to Reuters.
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