WTI Holds Gains After Gasoline Stocks Hit 2-Year-Low (As Pump-Prices Plunge?)
Oil prices are higher this morning after a two-day decline on the possibility of more attacks in the Middle East and potentially tightening US crude stockpiles.
While one Israeli minister suggested that the war with Hezbollah could be over by year-end, the country’s military chief vowed to strike Iran “very hard” should the OPEC producer launch another attack.
“We think the oil market has relaxed too quickly,” Standard Chartered analysts including Emily Ashford said in a note.
“We see the risk of an escalating series of attacks over an extended period, with no immediate prospect of either military or diplomatic resolution.”
Additionally, all eyes are on OPEC+’s plans to gradually revive production from December, with traders split on whether the alliance will press ahead. Reuters reported that OPEC+ nations could delay plans to revive oil production in December, citing unidentified sources.
But more notable for now is what local demand and supply looks like...
API
Crude -573k
Cushing +320k
Gasoline -282k
Distillates -1.463mm
DOE
Crude -515k
Cushing +681k
Gasoline -2.707mm
Distillates -977k
The opfficial data shows a major decline in gasoline stocks and small draw in crude inventories...
Source: Bloomberg
Total Gasoline stocks fell to their lowest since Nov 2022...
Source: Bloomberg
The addition of 1.189mm barrels to the SPR moved total crude stocks up by 674k barrels last week...
Source: Bloomberg
US crude production remains at record highs 13.5mm b/d...
Source: Bloomberg
WTI is holding above $68 after the data, still well down on the week...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we note that pump prices remain mysteriously low (multi-year low in gasoline stocks?) given where crude and wholesales gasoline prices are...
Source: Bloomberg
Bear in mind that prices remain considerably higher than pre-Harris/Biden...
Source: Bloomberg
We are sure this not political at all... one week before the election.