Oil futures are chopping sideways (after yesterday's tumble) with increased Middle East tensions countered by bearish factors like Putin's agreement not to attack Ukrainian energy facilities and OPEC+ plans to start raising output in less than two weeks time.

The API report overnight was "mostly bearish, however being offset by draws in inventories at Cushing as well as gasoline and distillates," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. 

"Look for more of a choppy trade as Russian/Ukraine talks proceed."

Will the official data back that up?

API

• Crude +4.6mm

• Cushing -1.1mm

• Gasoline -1.7mm

• Distillates -2.1mm

DOE

• Crude +1.745mm

• Cushing -1.01mm

• Gasoline -527k

• Distillates -2.81mm

Crude inventories rose for the 7th week in the last 8 but stocks at the critical Cushing Hub fell for the second week in a row. Products saw drawdowns for the 3rd week in a row...

Source: Bloomberg

Total crude stocks are at their highest since July 2024...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production remains near record highs...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is hovering around yesterday's lows after the big roller-coaster run...

Finally, we note that US gas prices continued their downward trend for a fourth straight week, with prices currently hovering around $3 per gallon, according to gas price-tracking website GasBuddy.

“The national average is now $3.02/gal, while diesel averages $3.56/gal,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a March 17 post on X. 

“The most common price for gas: $2.99. For diesel, $3.69/gal. 34 states see average #gasprices below $3.”

Data from GasBuddy shows that the U.S. national monthly price of gas at the beginning of February and March was lower than last year’s prices, and also lower than the same time in 2023.

In a March 17 statement on the situation, the White House said that President Donald Trump is “delivering needed economic relief.”

“After years of soaring prices and economic pain, the Trump Administration’s focus on cutting regulations and unleashing American energy is leading to stability for Americans’ bottom lines,” it said.