Hormuz Paralyzed: Another Tanker Hit, Floating Parking Lot Of Ships Swells

Update (1555ET):

The latest Automatic Identification System (AIS) vessel-tracking data, via Bloomberg, shows that tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been paralyzed, with only a few tankers still transiting the critical maritime energy chokepoint.

U.S. Central Command said in a statement on X that IRGC naval power has been severely degraded after U.S. forces and their allies eliminated eleven warships.

Two days ago, the Iranian regime had 11 ships in the Gulf of Oman, today they have ZERO. The Iranian regime has harassed and attacked international shipping in the Gulf of Oman for decades. Those days are over. Freedom of maritime navigation has underpinned American and global… pic.twitter.com/nzdkMVMqZC

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 2, 2026

That may explain why Brent crude futures have not been able to sustain $80 per barrel, as traders appear to assess that the IRGC's loss of warships would make any attempt to mount a blockade short-lived, especially given U.S. naval power in the region.

Late U.S. cash session, UBS analyst Jonathan Garber told clients that "Iran's Revolutionary Guards commander said the Strait of Hormuz is closed and they will set any ship on fire that tries to pass through, Reuters reports, citing Iranian media. WTI crude oil is now up more than 7% following the headlines."

BBG Headlines:

• IRGC ADVISER SAYS WON'T LET OIL LEAVE REGION: IRAN STATE TV

However, the loss of IRGC naval power should not lead investors to discount the regime's asymmetric capabilities, such as using missiles and drones to target tankers in the narrow waterway.

Two maritime sources confirm the oil tanker Athen Nova stopped in the Strait of Hormuz after being reportedly struck by two drones by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

— FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) March 2, 2026

That risk appeared to materialize late in the U.S. cash session, when reports emerged that two IRGC drones struck the oil tanker Athen Nova.

Rapidan Energy Group analyst Fernando Ferreira noted:

The US-Israeli offensive has shifted Tehran's calculus from deterrence to regime survival.

Iran cannot contest US control of the Gulf in a conventional fight, but it does not need to. Its strategy has always centered on denial, using drones, missiles, and mines to raise the cost of commercial transit through Hormuz.

Even if the IRGC Navy takes heavy losses, the core threat remains. Drone and missile attacks can still disrupt shipping and rattle energy markets. 

With that said, the critical maritime chokepoint responsible for 20% of global seaborne oil flows now appears likely to remain disrupted indefinitely.

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FGE NexantECA Chairman Emeritus Fereidun Fesharaki told Bloomberg TV on Monday morning that any attempt by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to choke off the critical Strait of Hormuz using warships, drones, and missiles would likely be short-lived, as the regime's naval capability is too weak to sustain a blockade against U.S., British, and French naval forces.

"It's just a fear factor," Fesharaki said earlier on Bloomberg TV, following his prediction one week earlier on Bloomberg TV: "I don't think the U.S. has a choice but to go to war. It is very hard for me to see a scenario in which they would simply avoid this, turn the ships around, and go home." Fesharaki has tracked the market for decades.

Fesharaki said this morning, "The Revolutionary Guard navy is a minor force compared with what the American navy, the British, and the French can bring in."

Fesharaki's comments about the duration of the war mirrored President Trump's remarks to The Daily Mail on Sunday, in which he said Operation Epic Fury would last about four weeks. He also described the IRGC as a "paper tiger."

On Sunday, Trump announced that nine Iranian naval ships had been sunk in the operation.

"I have just been informed that we have destroyed and sunk nine Iranian naval ships, some of them relatively large and important," Trump wrote in a post on X, adding that Iran's naval headquarters has been "largely destroyed" in a different attack.

"We are going after the rest — they will soon be floating at the bottom of the sea, also!" Trump wrote.

Rapidan Energy Group analyst Fernando Ferreira provided more insight on the Strait:

Iran understands that threatening traffic through Hormuz is its most credible asymmetric lever. Even limited interference can raise oil prices and impose immediate economic costs on the U.S. and its partners, increasing pressure on Washington to de-escalate.

We expect at least moderate disruptions to Gulf oil flows in the coming days, with the risk tilted toward something more severe if tensions escalate further.

As of Monday morning, Automatic Identification System (AIS) vessel-tracking data via Bloomberg shows that tanker activity in the critical maritime energy chokepoint has mostly frozen, with limited transits.

Related:

• "Expect Moderate Disruptions": Oil Tankers Avoid Strait Of Hormuz As Operation Fury Hits Iran

• Three Maritime Incidents Reported In Strait Of Hormuz Energy Chokepoint

Goldman analyst Adam Crook told clients over the weekend that any prolonged disruption of the Strait could push Brent crude prices toward $100/bbl. Currently, Brent crude futures trade around $79 as of 0900 ET.