"Seven Times Higher": Goldman Dissects The $20 Tanker Premium, And Finds 4 Of 5 Drivers Won't Go Away While The War Lasts

A year ago it cost about $3 to ship a barrel of crude. Now it costs over $20, and Goldman thinks most of that is here to stay as long as the war is.

That is the bottom line of a new Oil Analyst note from Goldman's Yulia Grigsby, Daan Struyven, Alexandra Paulus and Filippo Cuscito, "High Freight Costs: Wide Crude Differentials, High Product Prices" (available to pro subs), published Tuesday night. The timing is interesting: it lands just as tanker rates are finally rolling over, with Bloomberg reporting that the US Gulf-to-Europe aframax route (TD25) slid on Tuesday to its weakest since September 24. Here is how Goldman frames it:

From $3 To $20+: The Rally That Escaped The Gulf