Norway Doubles Down On Oil And Gas
Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,
Norway's oil and gas investment is expected to reach a record high in 2025, driven by new exploration activity and increased demand for Norwegian gas.
While Norway is a leader in renewable energy, it continues to invest heavily in oil and gas production, raising concerns about its climate commitments.
Norway aims to balance its oil and gas production with decarbonization efforts through electrification and investments in renewable energy projects both domestically and internationally.
After hitting record highs this year, Norway’s oil and gas investment is expected to grow even higher in 2025. Greater development activity on new projects and the cost of inflation have contributed heavily to the increase in Norway’s oil and gas investment in 2024. Norway’s oil and gas investment is expected to total around $22.9 billion this year, marking an all-time high, according to the country’s statistics office. The previous record was $20.4 billion in 2014 when oil prices were very high and companies were still spending heavily on new oil and gas projects. The increase in investment supported new exploration activity, pipeline transportation, and shutdown and removal.
The Scandinavian oil superpower is expected to continue investing heavily in fossil fuels in the coming years. Oil and gas companies operating in Norway expect to invest an estimated $24.68 billion in 2025, the industry association Offshore Norge announced in December. The group surveyed 14 companies, including Equinor, Aker, Vår Energi, ConocoPhillips, and Shell, representing almost the entirety of the country’s oil and gas output. Companies plan to commence drilling on 45 exploration wells in Norwegian waters in 2025, an increase from 41 this year and the highest level since 2019.
The increase in new exploration projects reflects the growth in demand for natural gas from Norway, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russian oil. Norway is Western Europe's largest oil and gas producer, with an output of more than 4 million bpd, and the government aims to continue increasing production for several decades.
In December, Vår Energi and Equinor announced they had made a new oil discovery at their Cerisa exploration well near an operational asset in the Barents Sea. The operators estimate the discovery holds between 1.3 and 4.8 million standard cubic meters of recoverable oil equivalent. This marked the fourth find in a row in the region. Alongside previous discoveries in Gjøa North and Ofelia/Kyrre, Cerisa could be tied into the Gjøa field using existing infrastructure in the area. This would provide combined estimated gross recoverable resources of up to 110 MMboe.
In addition to new exploration activities in Norway’s waters, Equinor also announced plans in December for a new 50/50 joint venture with Shell that will see the merging of their U.K. fossil fuel assets to create the largest independent oil and gas producer in the U.K. North Sea. The two companies announced in a joint statement that the new venture will help “sustain domestic oil and gas production and security of energy supply in the U.K.” The statement went on to say, “With the once prolific basin now maturing and production naturally declining, the combination of portfolios and expertise will allow continued economic recovery of this vital U.K. resource.”
Norway has justified its oil and gas expansion by investing in ‘low-carbon’ oil projects, which incorporate decarbonization techniques, as well as through its heavy investment in green energy projects. Norway is now the largest and lowest emissions supplier of oil and gas in Europe. This is largely thanks to the electrification of the country’s upstream operations, using Norway’s extensive hydropower. By 2026, Wood Mackenzie forecasts that over 60 percent of Norwegian production will be electrified.
New energy market intelligence research from Rystad’s Palzor Shenga and Elliot Busby suggests that the electrification of fossil fuel operations can significantly reduce upstream oil and gas emissions. The research shows that over 80 percent of emissions generated from upstream oil and gas production facilities can be cut by using electricity from renewable resources or natural gas that would otherwise be flared.
Shenga, the vice president of upstream research at Rystad, stated, “As the world confronts the pressing issue of climate change, the oil and gas industry is under increasing pressure to minimize its carbon footprint and align its practices with global sustainability objectives. Where it’s possible and economically viable, electrification has great potential to lower the industry’s emissions while maintaining production output.”
Norway has invested heavily in renewable energy in recent years. Its grid runs almost entirely on green energy sources, and it has also funded projects in other parts of the world. For example, in June Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund purchased a $418 million stake in the 573 MW U.K. wind farm Race Bank. The Norwegian Investment Fund for Developing Countries also announced an investment of $19.9 million in three wind farms with a total capacity of 420 MW in South Africa, to be built by EDF Renewables.
Nonetheless, many question whether Norway should be seen as a climate hero or as a carbon villain. The International Energy Agency has repeatedly said that further fossil fuel exploration is not compatible with its scenarios for reaching net zero emissions by 2050, meaning that Norway’s oil and gas investment is at odds with its aims for a green transition, despite its decarbonization and carbon offset efforts. Yet it seems that Norway wants to have its cake and eat it by continuing to invest heavily in oil and gas while also providing significant funding for decarbonization and a green transition.