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IRGC Announces Attack On Another Tanker In Hormuz, As Trump Mulls 'Annihilate Them Or Not' Decision

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
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Update(1755ET): While the White House has signaled it wishes to see 'quiet' in the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalation when it comes to Iran, it doesn't seem heavily sanctioned-Tehran is yet willing to see it that way. Another foreign vessel has reportedly been hit, via Sepha News:

IRGC says Togolese-flagged tanker 'Trend' was hit and stopped after a fire, while it stated the tanker violated Hormuz rules and that the US instigated the transit.

Below is a machine translation of the IRGC statement that was released on Telegram:

Last night, the offending tanker Trend, flying the flag of Togo, attempted an illegal passage through the Strait of Hormuz under the instigation and deception of the child-killing U.S. military; it was struck and came to a halt after a fire broke out on board.

The IRGC Navy warns once again that illegal passage through the Strait of Hormuz will result in nothing other than the destruction of the offending vessel.

President Trump has still insisted the US can negotiate with the Iranians at any time, and that they are "begging" for it.

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Update(1325ET): Some key lines of President Trump given to Axios on Thursday...

He told the outlet he is at a "critical juncture" regarding the war in Iran, weighing whether to launch massive new attacks or pursue a different path to end the conflict.

He has previously indicated his belief that war will continue through the November midterm elections. Trump has newly said:

"I have a big decision coming up. Do I want to go in and annihilate them [the Iranian regime] or do I not? It's a big decision. Anything could happen with me."

The war is increasingly unpopular among Americans, and Trump's rhetoric has appeared a bit more honest on this of late. What's the end game? After six months of conflict, Epic Fury has looked like a bombing campaign in search of a strategy. According to more of Trump's talk with Axios:

  • Trump declined to say whether he'll decide on the path forward before or after the midterms.
  • Trump and Hegseth have ordered the military to maintain its level of forces in the Middle East until the end of the year, to remain ready for a potential return to full-scale combat.
  • The officials say Trump needs to decide soon on the way forward, partly because the US military can't stay in its current holding pattern much longer. "At some point you have to decide what is the end game"

The situation of global energy transit has over the past week become much more complicated with the Houthis advance across Yemen's Red Sea coastline, and drone damage to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. The US looks to be staying on the sidelines of Yemen fighting, for the time being. New via Al Jazeera:

A senior US official told Al Jazeera: We are focused on ensuring navigation in the Red Sea and allowing our partners to manage security challenges.

And yet "partners" like the Saudis and its government in Sanaa are clearly not doing so well.

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Oil prices are falling on Thursday on some headlines signaling potential de-escalation moves out of the Saudi-Yemen conflict, both via Reuters:

  • China reportedly presses Iran to help rein in the Houthis after Saudi appeal, according to Retuers citing sources
  • Oil prices fell on Wednesday after reports that Saudi Arabia was offering additional crude cargoes through Oman eased some concerns about Middle East supply disruptions, while a smaller-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories added further downward pressure. 

US crude futures have extended their drop to fall back below $100/bbl. This also comes amid continued reports of better-than-expected recovery in Gulf infrastructure, as Saudi Arabia is claiming it is able to restore half the capacity of its East-West pipeline within merely days. The optimism could prove just wishful thinking, however - and the coming week will tell.

Starting last week, when the Houthis made their lightning-fast advance along the Red Sea coast, fragmenting the positions of the Saudi-backed coalition government, Riyadh turned to Beijing for help, the Thursday Reuters report indicates.

"Chinese officials did not issue any explicit threats ​or indicate that Beijing would seek to pressure Tehran economically if it failed to use its influence over the Houthis, the three Iranian sources said," the report adds.

The Chinese foreign ministry has responded to knowledge of the diplomatic maneuvering getting out that "China does not wish to see regional tensions further spill over into Yemen and the Red Sea. Escalating regional instability is not in the interests of ​any party".

"The sovereignty and security of all countries should be respected, and facilities vital to people's livelihoods must not be targeted. China calls for an end to actions that further complicate the situation and urges resolving issues through dialogue ​and negotiation," it said.

A senior Western diplomat in the region was separately quoted as saying "Beijing is one of the few capitals that can still ​press Iran to rein in the Houthis."

Given that the Iran-aligned Shia group has often shown a willingness to cooperate and coordinate action to Tehran's benefit, Ansar Allah leadership may listen if it gets a signal to de-escalate from Iran.

According to to some Thursday and latest developments via Al Jazeera:

  • Yemeni government forces are trying to prevent Houthi advances on several fronts, including the strategic Kahbub mountains near Bab al-Mandeb and Taiz, with Saudi Arabia providing support with air strikes in areas around the city.
  • President Donald Trump has told reporters that the US is “hopefully toward the end” of its war on Iran and notes that he has spoken with Iranians “directly”.
  • UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urges de-escalation and diplomacy in the Middle East as fighting intensifies in Yemen and between the Houthi group and Saudi Arabia.
  • Iran’s national security chief Mohsen Rezaei says the US must take practical steps to earn Tehran’s confidence, stressing that the country harbours zero trust in Washington.
  • A UN fact-finding mission has found “reasonable grounds” to believe the US was behind two attacks, including the strike against a school in Minab in February, which it says constituted war ⁠crimes. ​

On the Yemen front, Al Jazeera writes, "The fighting is continuing and government forces are claiming that the Ansarullah Houthis have suffered a lot of casualties in the clashes that are occurring on a number of fronts, mainly in western Taiz and also in Kahbub, which is a mountainous area with strategic importance as it overlooks Bab al-Mandeb."

Throughout the conflict, both the Iranians and the Houthis have at various times said they are willing to grant China and other "friendly" countries like Russia "special considerations" when it comes to water transit and paying "fees" - the latter case related to the Strait of Hormuz.

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