By now it has become abundantly clear (and if it isn't, the openly biased media has certainly made it its purpose to highlight over and over) what the downside is to the US from Trump's ongoing trade war against the world, but especially China: sliding markets, rising rates, dumping dollar. The economy has so far proven resilient, with hard data surprising to the upside for the past 2 months (perhaps as a result of pre-buying ahead of tariffs), even as sentiment (among Democrats) has crashed and inflation expectations (also among Democrats) have exploded (yet oddly those same Democrats aren't rushing to spend all their hard-earned savings today instead of waiting a year from now when they are certain their purchasing power to be 6-10% lower). However, as Michael Every writes today, if what is now effectively a US-China trade embargo remains in place, the US economy "could see shortages on shelves within weeks and/or of price rises" and then, even if there is a tariff U-turn logistics would then be overwhelmed.

In short, we know what the pressure points for the US are. But what about China, and why has the media kept such a tight lid on reporting across the Pacific (besides the obvious, namely that in a Trump world, China, Democrats and the media are all aligned in seeking to tear down the US).

To answer this all important question - because stated simply, the first country that hits a max pain point will also be the one that loses the trade war - we were one of the (very) few to take a closer look at how the sudden freeze in China's exports to the US and their various supply chains is translating into a domestic economic impact, and found that several sectors of China's economy are already in deep pain (see "Chinese Plastics Factories Face Mass Closure As US Ethane Supply Evaporates").