Key Events This Week: Jobs, Jolts, ISM, And Fed Blackout Period Begins

It's another payrolls week with consensus (+190k) expecting job gains to pick up from last month's +175k number with unemployment widely expected to stay at 3.9%. As DB's Jim Reid writres this morning, the bank's economists think the risks are biased to it rounding down a tenth rather than up. Meanwhile, the JOLTS data tomorrow is many people's preferred employment measure but it's always a month lagged to payrolls which reduces the impact. The employment components of May's ISM indices (today for manufacturing and Wednesday for services) will also help fine tune expectations for payrolls. At the index level, DB economists see the manufacturing gauge moving from 49.2 to 49.4 in May and the services one expanding to 50.4 from 49.4 in April. Here are all the key events in the US this week.

In Europe, all eyes will be on the ECB decision on Thursday, where most economists expect a 25bps cut with markets pricing in a 96% probability. All eyes will be on how they signal the path after this meeting. The Bank of Canada meet beforehand on Wednesday with expectations that they stay on hold for now. In terms of European data, various final PMIs are out this week alongside Germany factory orders (Thursday), industrial production (Friday), and the trade balance (Friday). Elsewhere, there will be the French trade balance data (Friday) and industrial production (Wednesday), Swiss CPI (tomorrow), as well as retail sales for the Eurozone and Italy (Thursday).

Elsewhere we have the presidential elections result in Mexico after yesterday’s election with Sheinbaum set for a landslide victory according to exit polls just released. Staying with elections we have the important European Parliamentary elections between June 6-9 and the results of India's general elections will be counted tomorrow. Exit polls show a resounding win with a predicted seat range of 350-400 for Narendra Modi’s BJP-led NDA coalition which would likely be seen as supportive for the current policy regime after Indian assets had underperformed over the last month. They need 272 for a majority and more than 352 to better the 2019 outcome.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday June 3

• Data : US May ISM manufacturing, total vehicle sales, April construction spending, China May Caixin manufacturing PMI, Japan Q1 capital spending, company profits, company sales, Italy May manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, budget balance, Canada May manufacturing PMI
• Central banks : ECB's Simkus speaks

Tuesday June 4

• Data : US April JOLTS report, factory orders, Japan May monetary base, Germany May unemployment claims rate, France April budget balance YTD, Switzerland May CPI
• Earnings : Crowdstrike

Wednesday June 5

• Data : US May ADP report, ISM services, China May Caixin services PMI, UK May new car registrations, official reserves changes, Japan April labor cash earnings, France April industrial production, Italy May services PMI, Eurozone April PPI, Canada Q1 labor productivity, May services PMI, Australia Q1 GDP
• Central banks : BoC decision
• Earnings : Inditex, Dollar Tree, Lululemon

Thursday June 6

• Data : US April trade balance, initial jobless claims, UK May construction PMI, Germany May construction PMI, April factory orders, Italy and Eurozone April retail sales, Canada April international merchandise trade
• Central banks : ECB decision, BoJ's Nakamura speaks, BoE's DMP survey
• Earnings : Meituan, Nio

Friday June 7

• Data : US May jobs report, April wholesale trade sales, consumer credit, China May trade balance, foreign reserves, Japan April household spending, coincident index, leading index, Germany April industrial production, trade balance, France April current account balance, trade balance, Canada May jobs report, Q1 capacity utilisation rate
• Central banks : Fed's Cook speaks, ECB's Nagel, Holzmann and Schnabel speak

* * *

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the ISM manufacturing index on Monday, the JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday, and the employment report on Friday. There are no speaking engagements from Fed officials this week other than a commencement speech from Governor Cook on Friday, reflecting the FOMC’s blackout period.

Monday, June 3

• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, May preliminary (consensus 50.9, last 50.9)
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, April (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.2%)
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, May (GS 49.2, consensus 49.6, last 49.2): We estimate the ISM manufacturing index was unchanged at 49.2 in May, as unfavorable seasonality offsets the rebound in global manufacturing activity. Our manufacturing tracker edged up 0.2pt to 48.8.
• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, May (GS 16.0mn, consensus 15.8mn, last 15.7mn)

Tuesday, June 4

• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, April (GS 8,300k, consensus 8,377k, last 8,488k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings fell by 0.2mn to 8.3mn in April, reflecting a renewed pullback in online job postings.
• 10:00 AM Factory orders, April (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.8%); Durable goods orders, April final (consensus +0.7%, last +0.7%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, April final (consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%); Core capital goods orders, April final (last +0.3%); Core capital goods shipments, April final (last +0.4%)

Wednesday, June 5

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, May (GS +125k, consensus +175k, last +192k): We estimate a 125k rise in ADP payroll employment in May, reflecting a below-normal pace of job creation during the spring hiring season.
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, May final (consensus 54.7, last 54.8)
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, May (GS 51.0, consensus 51.0, last 49.4): We estimate that the ISM services index rose 0.6pt to 51.0 in May. Our non-manufacturing survey tracker edged up 0.9pt to 52.2, but we view seasonality as unfavorable.

Thursday, June 6

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q1 final (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.3%); Unit labor costs, Q1 final (GS +4.9%, consensus +4.9%, last +4.7%);
• 08:30 AM Trade balance, April (GS -$75.7bn, consensus -$76.4bn, last -$69.4bn)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 1 (GS 225k, consensus 220k, last 219k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 25 (consensus 1,790k, last 1,791k): We note that this week’s initial jobless claims reading covers the period including the Memorial Day holiday. Initial claims have historically been slightly more volatile around Memorial Day: the 90th percentile of week-over-week absolute changes over the past couple decades, excluding recessions, is 19k vs. 14k on average in the surrounding couple weeks.

Friday, June 7

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, May (GS +160k, consensus +190k, last +175k); Private payroll employment, May (GS +140k, consensus +170k, last +167k); Average hourly earnings (mom), May (GS +0.25%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), May (GS +3.87%, consensus +3.9%, last +3.9%); Unemployment rate, May (GS 3.9%, consensus 3.9%, last 3.9%); Labor force participation rate, May (GS 62.7%, consensus 62.7%, last 62.7%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 160k in May (mom sa). Big Data measures indicate a below-normal pace of job creation during the spring hiring season, and our layoff tracker has rebounded, albeit from low levels. On the positive side, we expect a 50-80k boost from the longer-than-usual May payroll month. While the BLS seasonal factors in principle adjust for these effects, they appear to have anchored around the weak nonfarm payroll reading in May 2019, which was also 5 weeks long. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9%, reflecting modestly higher household employment and stable labor force participation at 62.7%. Foreign-born unemployment rebounded in April (+223k, SA by GS), suggesting scope for the jobless rate to fall if some of these individuals found jobs. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.25% (mom sa), which would lower the year-on-year rate by 5bps to 3.87%. Our forecast reflects waning wage pressures and a 1-3bp drag from calendar effects (mom sa).
• 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, April final (consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%)
• 12:00 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will give the commencement address at the Girls Global Academy in Washington, D.C. Speech text is expected. On March 25, Cook said that “The path of disinflation, as expected, has been bumpy and uneven, but a careful approach to further policy adjustments can ensure that inflation will return sustainably to 2% while striving to maintain the strong labor market.”

Source: DB, Goldman