NatGas Futures Spike Ahead Of Forecasted "Historic Cold"
US natural gas futures surged Monday morning as weather models continued to show a significant cold blast set to sweep across the Lower 48 in the coming days. The arctic air mass is expected to linger for weeks in the eastern half of the US, with increasing chances of wintery precipitation in some parts of the US. Traders appear to be responding to updated heating degree day forecasts, signaling a massive spike in heating demand over the next few weeks.
In early Monday trading, NatGas futures for February delivery surged as much as 12.3% to $3.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). Technicians note that prices have broken through the critical $3 resistance level this heating season after a multi-year bottom following the spike to nearly $10 in mid-2022.
On Friday, private weather forecaster BAMWX told clients "all systems go" for an Arctic blast, or "polar vortex," to pour into the eastern half of the US during the second week of January or by mid-month.
By Sunday, BAMWX meteorologists noted, "Now we're starting to think about historic cold."
90% of you are reading this map incorrectly so let me help you out.
— BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) December 29, 2024
This is the forecast temp departure from normal not the actual air temp forecast.
So -30 is 30 degrees colder than your normal temp.
Here are the feels like temp forecast right now Jan 8-10th. pic.twitter.com/sMHyvEw6RT
"It's an intense level of cold in the heart of Winter," BAMX said.
Morning GEFS ensemble mean.
— BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) December 29, 2024
Map on the left is the colder change from 12hrs ago.
Map on the right is the week 2 actual ensemble mean forecast temps from normal.
It’s an intense level of cold in the heart of Winter. pic.twitter.com/p7BkWZq2O4
Hmm.
We're keeping an eye on a potential storm system that will usher in the extremely cold temperatures late weekend/early next week. Keep in mind this is simply an area to MONITOR. Exact specifics, timing, impacts, etc. will have to be fine tuned.
— BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) December 30, 2024
More details on our Clarity… pic.twitter.com/mfFnT4uqij
BAMWX meteorologist outlines what's ahead:
- Cold arrives Jan 1
- Extreme cold comes w/storm ~7th
- Dangerous cold 8-12th
- Bigger storm mid month
- Pattern changes late Jan
12-29-24 An Extreme Winter Pattern Incoming!
— BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) December 29, 2024
-Cold arrives Jan 1
-Extreme cold comes w/storm ~7th
-Dangerous cold 8-12th
-Bigger storm mid month
-Pattern changes late Jan
Details in my latest video! Share with a friend! pic.twitter.com/XLH0ETDIAD
Old Man Winter is inbound.