"Investors still believe in the Trump put, hence global equities are not down as much as in past oil shocks. But nervousness is growing by the day and the longer the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, the more stagflationary markets will turn."

Very soon,10-Qs may be a thing of the past...

Billions of gallons of water are lost daily to aging water pipes while a perfect storm of factors strains supply...

It was reported that Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi and US Special Envoy Witkoff have been in contact by text messaging over recent days, although Iran later denied this.

Oil and SPX are moving in near-perfect inverse tandem — correlations around 96%.

U.S. officials estimate the operation now affects hundreds of companies and generates hundreds of millions of dollars annually for the North Korean government.

The biggest risk for inflation will not be the impact of energy prices only, but the response from governments if they decide to spend and print their way out of the war’s impact...

"...because of the war I want to be here. I have to be here, I feel,”

A community that spent much of the past year structurally short volatility has now pivoted aggressively toward protection — meaning a meaningful portion of the volatility positioning reset has already occurred beneath the surface. - Goldman 

"The industrial base is desperate for material." 

...repo, redemptions, raging war, and election reforms

REAR VIEW: Trump says Iran wants to make a deal, they are talking to our people & war will end soon; Trump reportedly seeks a Hormuz coalition and is weighing seizing Iran's oil depot on Kharg Island; Loadings at the UAE's Fujairah port have reportedly resumed after being hit; Iraq said it issued tenders to export oil via ports in Syria and Jordan; Bessent says US-China trade meetings in Paris "very good"; BoC headline Y/Y prints below 2%; UK reportedly to raise steel tariffs to 50% in new strategy; US & Iran reportedly in contact in recent days; NVDA touts USD 1trln of demand through 2027.

New leader turns national holiday into a globalist lecture...

Oil has blown past the normal ±30% overshoot range while CTAs pile into crowded longs.

60% of the company's business comes from hyperscalers. 

Lights out, Havana. 

Extreme positioning, extreme outflows, but still that 2022 feeling.

The US alone cannot pivot away from this situation, it will require both Iran and Israel to agree...