Markets have mostly priced a rate shock but limited growth risks...

Survey shows 47% choosing marriage, kids, and stability over corporate grind...

"If you think that's because they want to help lower energy prices, think again. Any oil company that commits to boosting future..." 

A distribution shock, not a depletion story but the first cracks are already visible.

“This is not just a fraud problem. This is a California problem...”

"That's a U.S. LUCAS kamikaze drone..." 

At that point, the system is not absorbing the shock, it is running down its buffers while demand is forcibly rationed.

The economics of AI exposure and job displacement...

Two largest producers - Khuzestan Steel Company & Mobarakeh - have both been knocked offline...

“This is a group of people who really have a lot on their minds,” the politician says.

Adm. Caudle also voices concern over resources pulled from other global risk areas...

If NATO as a whole remains more or less intact... and the US then reaches bilateral security deals with Poland, the Baltic States, and Turkiye, then not much would change from Russia’s perspective.

18 Macro Charts to Chew On.

The issue of Red Sea security is far from resolved and is becoming more dynamic...

...interesting that the betting markets suggest the probability of a US withdrawal is about the same as boots on the ground.

The list of factors limiting AI build-out continues to grow...

We think a market-neutral approach is prudent with longs in Energy and MegaCap Tech and combination of index hedges...

The market has priced a large hawkish policy shock, alongside a more modest growth shock...

California has lost at least $180 billion to fraud, according to officials and experts...