markets
"No one is long the 30-year (annualizing 15% loss in '24) on debt dynamics/concern slowdown = more fiscal excess; that means lower long yields v obvious “pain trade” in H2"
"Liquidity isn't something that people think about on the way up, but it can become a concern suddenly."
Structurally we still don’t see a case to be long US duration vs the current data set...
Working out of Bank of America’s London office, the trader was "active in sports", the report says, noting that he was a native of Sweden and also played ice hockey.
“Quite frankly, demand has not been as strong as what we would like.”
...deposit flight all from large banks (small banks see inflows).
...'soft' data at nine-year lows, new record highs for stocks and gold, bitcoin and bonds bid, oil at six week highs...
...off-exchange volume reached its highest level on record.
"...the market is - correctly -- discounting the value of survey data these days. To my eye, this just underscores the value of the hard data in the current cycle..."
... given that we are now in a world where there is little conviction of returning to a 2% inflation regime anytime soon, bullion has room to grind higher.
It's like clockwork: every time China's FX outflows jump, bitcoin erupts higher. Rinse, repeat.
Investors believe the deviation between fundamentals and fantasy doesn’t matter as long as the Fed supports asset prices. Such a point remains challenging to argue...
...approximately 25% of index gamma expiring today, and with that volatility has the opportunity to increase next week
"While Grand Theft Auto VI has been delayed, the long-term opportunity..."
The new program powerfully signals that policymakers are pushing...
"I've been critical of Tesla shorts like @davidein because they fundamentally misunderestimate Tesla's core value driver: autonomy."
“The markets are now at a bit of a crossroads,” said Stuart Cole, head macro economist at Equiti Capital. “With the central banks all very much in a data-dependence mode, the markets will be also adjusting expectations to each piece of relevant data that comes out.”
- European bourses are mostly lower, whilst US equity futures are flat
- Dollar is firmer, AUD underperforms after mixed Chinese data
- Bonds are pressured, more-so in EGBs following hawkish commentary from ECB’s Schnabel
- Crude is flat, XAU modestly firmer and base metals benefit from China's support measures despite mixed data
- Looking ahead, Comments from Fed's Waller & Daly