markets


Hartnett: This Is The Obvious "Pain Trade" Of The Second Half Of 2024

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"No one is long the 30-year (annualizing 15% loss in '24) on debt dynamics/concern slowdown = more fiscal excess; that means lower long yields v obvious “pain trade” in H2"


Sternlicht's Starwood REIT Running Low On Cash As Redemptions Soar Amid CRE Storm 

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"Liquidity isn't something that people think about on the way up, but it can become a concern suddenly." 


Goldman Suggests "Caution" Around Data-Surprise Dump, Sees "Gradual, Shallow Cutting-Cycle

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Structurally we still don’t see a case to be long US duration vs the current data set...


25 Year Old BofA Analyst Dies Suddenly Of Cardiac Arrest While Playing Soccer At Industry Event

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Working out of Bank of America’s London office, the trader was "active in sports", the report says, noting that he was a native of Sweden and also played ice hockey. 


"The Economics Just Don't Work": Demand For Electric Semis Plunges Due To High Costs

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“Quite frankly, demand has not been as strong as what we would like.”


The Decay Of Everyday Life

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So where does this leave us? We're on our own...


US Banks Suffer $80BN Deposit Decline, Money Market Fund AUM Rise As Stocks Soar

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...deposit flight all from large banks (small banks see inflows).


Dismal Data Sparks Dollar Dump - Everything Else Rips On Record Week

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...'soft' data at nine-year lows, new record highs for stocks and gold, bitcoin and bonds bid, oil at six week highs...


Forget FOMO, FOMU Is Back - Goldman Flows Guru Says 'Retail Has Engaged'

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...off-exchange volume reached its highest level on record.


"There's A Glaring Disjunction Between Risky Assets Performance & Economic Activity" - Goldman's Trader Warns

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"...the market is - correctly -- discounting the value of survey data these days.  To my eye, this just underscores the value of the hard data in the current cycle..."   


With Momentum In Its Favor, Gold Has Potential To Head Higher

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... given that we are now in a world where there is little conviction of returning to a 2% inflation regime anytime soon, bullion has room to grind higher.


Chinese FX Outflows Soar To Highest Since 2015 Devaluation, Priming Next Bitcoin Surge

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It's like clockwork: every time China's FX outflows jump, bitcoin erupts higher. Rinse, repeat.


Is Buffett's Cash Hoard A Market Warning?

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Investors believe the deviation between fundamentals and fantasy doesn’t matter as long as the Fed supports asset prices. Such a point remains challenging to argue...


GameStop Crashes On Plan To Dump 45 Million Shares On Market

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Thanks for playing retail. 


$2.5 Trillion OpEx Opens Vol-Expansion Door For Next Week's NVDA Earnings

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...approximately 25% of index gamma expiring today, and with that volatility has the opportunity to increase next week


Take-Two Shares Drop After Grand Theft Auto VI Delayed Again

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"While Grand Theft Auto VI has been delayed, the long-term opportunity..." 


PBOC Unveils $42 Billion Monetary Cannon To Boost Debt-Stricken Housing Market

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The new program powerfully signals that policymakers are pushing... 


Former Greenlight Employee Offers To Debate David Einhorn Over Merits Of Tesla Short

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"I've been critical of Tesla shorts like @davidein because they fundamentally misunderestimate Tesla's core value driver: autonomy."


Futures Flat In Quiet End To Torrid Week

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“The markets are now at a bit of a crossroads,” said Stuart Cole, head macro economist at Equiti Capital. “With the central banks all very much in a data-dependence mode, the markets will be also adjusting expectations to each piece of relevant data that comes out.”


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  • European bourses are mostly lower, whilst US equity futures are flat
  • Dollar is firmer, AUD underperforms after mixed Chinese data
  • Bonds are pressured, more-so in EGBs following hawkish commentary from ECB’s Schnabel
  • Crude is flat, XAU modestly firmer and base metals benefit from China's support measures despite mixed data
  • Looking ahead, Comments from Fed's Waller & Daly